The market organism: Long-run survival in markets with heterogeneous traders
The information content of prices is a central problem in the general equilibrium analysis of competitive markets. Rational expectations equilibrium identifies conditioning simultaneously on contemporaneous prices and private information as the mechanism by which information enters prices. Here we look to the ecology of markets for an explanation of the information content of prices. Markets could select across traders with different beliefs, or, reminiscent of 'the wisdom of crowds', markets could balance the diverse information of many participants. We provide theoretical support in favor of the first mechanism, and against the second. Along the way we demonstrate that the necessary condition for long-run survival in complete markets found in Sandroni [2000. Do markets favor agents able to make accurate predictions? Econometrica 68 (6), 1303-1342] and in Blume and Easley [2006. If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Belief selection in complete and incomplete markets. Econometrica 74 (4), 929-966] is not sufficient for long-run survival. We also demonstrate some surprising behavior of market prices when several trader types with different beliefs survive. This paper continues the research program of Blume and Easley [1992. Evolution and market behavior. Journal of Eonomic theory 58 (1), 9-40] and Beker and Chattopadhyay [2006. Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium: a characterisation when markets are incomplete, University of Warwick, unpublished].
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
- George J. Mailath & Alvaro Sandroni, 2003.
"Market Selection and Asymmetric Information,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 343-368, 04.
- George J. Mailath & Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Market Selection and Asymmetric Information," CARESS Working Papres mkt-selection, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- George J. Mailath & Alvaro Sroni, . "Market Selection and Asymmetric Information," Penn CARESS Working Papers d50f0ddbbf9f79b6e05bb90a5, Penn Economics Department.
- George J. Mailath & Alvaro Sandroni, . "Market Selection and Asymmetrick Information," CARESS Working Papres 00-07, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Snyder, Wayne W, 1978. "Horse Racing: Testing the Efficient Markets Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1109-18, September.
- Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
- Peleg, Bezalel & Yaari, Menahem E, 1970. "Markets with Countably Many Commodities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(3), pages 369-77, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:5:p:1023-1035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.