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Revealing the implied risk-neutral MGF from options: The wavelet method

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Listed author(s):
  • Haven, Emmanuel
  • Liu, Xiaoquan
  • Ma, Chenghu
  • Shen, Liya

Abstract

Options are believed to contain unique information on the risk-neutral moment generating function (MGF) or the risk-neutral probability density function (PDF) of the underlying asset. This paper applies the wavelet method to approximate the implied risk-neutral MGF from option prices. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to show how the risk-neutral MGF can be obtained using the wavelet method. With the Black-Scholes model as the benchmark, we offer a novel method to reveal the implied MGF, and to price in-sample options and forecast out-of-sample option prices with the estimated MGF.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 692-709

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:3:p:692-709
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Keywords: Wavelet analysis Option pricing Laplace transform;

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  1. Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
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  4. Davidson, Russell & Labys, Walter C & Lesourd, Jean-Baptiste, 1998. "Wavelet Analysis of Commodity Price Behavior," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 103-128, April.
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  7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
  8. Ma, Chenghu, 2006. "Intertemporal recursive utility and an equilibrium asset pricing model in the presence of Levy jumps," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 131-160, April.
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  11. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
  12. Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 91-115, March.
  13. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
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Cited by:

  1. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Radu S., 2014. "Extracting market information from equity options with exponential Lévy processes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 125-141.
  2. Schlögl, Erik, 2013. "Option pricing where the underlying assets follow a Gram/Charlier density of arbitrary order," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 611-632.
  3. Haven, Emmanuel & Liu, Xiaoquan & Shen, Liya, 2012. "De-noising option prices with the wavelet method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 104-112.

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