Exploring the impact of Ofsted inspections on performance in children’s social care

Children’s social care services in England are inspected by a government agency, Ofsted. This paper reports on the impact of Ofsted inspections on rates of intervention and other performance measures, such as expenditure and workforce, drawing on a quantitative analysis of national datasets. Annual published returns from 150 English local authorities from 2009 to 19 were combined with results from Ofsted inspections under the Single Inspection Framework (2014–17), which covered all local authorities. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was undertaken to find out whether an inspection had a significant effect on performance in the context of trends pre- and post-inspection, and whether this effect varied according to the type of judgement. The results showed discontinuities in a range of indicators in the year of an inspection and the year afterwards. An increase in rates of child protection interventions occurred at the time of an inspection, which was most pronounced in local authorities receiving an inadequate judgement. An inadequate judgement led to a steep rise in spending and use of agency workers compared to other local authorities. The findings suggest that a short-term spike in intervention rates is an unintended consequence of inspections, which is sustained only in local authorities judged to be performing badly. Implications are discussed for performance in the sector and the purpose of inspection.