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Predictors of re-referral to children’s social care services: An analysis of the national datasets for England

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  • Goldacre, Allie
  • Jones, Ed
  • Martin, Emma
  • Clements, Keith
  • Webb, Calum
  • Hood, Rick

Abstract

Repeat involvement with child welfare services is often considered undesirable, although there may be good reasons for a re-referral. It therefore helps to know the likelihood of and risk factors for re-referral when making decisions about care planning and case closure. This paper addresses gaps in the knowledge base by reporting on analysis of re-referrals within a large national dataset of children’s social care in England. The data covered 3.4 million episodes that were closed to children’s social care between 2014 and 2019, of which 1.4 million (41 %) were re-referred over the same period. Survival analysis techniques were used to estimate the probability of re-referral, accounting for varying lengths of follow-up. The results showed that the overall rate of re-referral was 58 % over six years and 32 % over 12 months following case closure. However, rates varied considerably depending on the category of assessed need, the intervention pathway following assessment, as well as other child and case-level characteristics. Implications are discussed for policy and practice in the sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Goldacre, Allie & Jones, Ed & Martin, Emma & Clements, Keith & Webb, Calum & Hood, Rick, 2025. "Predictors of re-referral to children’s social care services: An analysis of the national datasets for England," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:cysrev:v:169:y:2025:i:c:s0190740924006856
    DOI: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2024.108113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diogo G. C. Britto & Roberto Hsu Rocha & Paolo Pinotti & Breno Sampaio, 2024. "Small Children, Big Problems: Childbirth and Crime," CESifo Working Paper Series 11083, CESifo.
    2. Bywaters, Paul & Scourfield, Jonathan & Webb, Calum & Morris, Kate & Featherstone, Brid & Brady, Geraldine & Jones, Chantel & Sparks, Tim, 2019. "Paradoxical evidence on ethnic inequities in child welfare: Towards a research agenda," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 145-154.
    3. Hood, Rick & Goldacre, Allie, 2021. "Exploring the impact of Ofsted inspections on performance in children’s social care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Wenjing Xu & Zhi Li & Yudong Wang & KeJun Ma & Lu Liu & Yijun Bao & Xin Shi, 2024. "Public Health and Children’s Subjective Well-Being," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 17(4), pages 1471-1493, August.
    5. Oecd, 2024. "Towards digital safety by design for children," OECD Digital Economy Papers 363, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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