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Systematic physics constrained parameter estimation of stochastic differential equations

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  • Peavoy, Daniel
  • Franzke, Christian L.E.
  • Roberts, Gareth O.

Abstract

A systematic Bayesian framework is developed for physics constrained parameter inference of stochastic differential equations (SDE) from partial observations. Physical constraints are derived for stochastic climate models but are applicable for many fluid systems. A condition is derived for global stability of stochastic climate models based on energy conservation. Stochastic climate models are globally stable when a quadratic form, which is related to the cubic nonlinear operator, is negative definite. A new algorithm for the efficient sampling of such negative definite matrices is developed and also for imputing unobserved data which improve the accuracy of the parameter estimates. The performance of this framework is evaluated on two conceptual climate models.

Suggested Citation

  • Peavoy, Daniel & Franzke, Christian L.E. & Roberts, Gareth O., 2015. "Systematic physics constrained parameter estimation of stochastic differential equations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 182-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:182-199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2014.10.011
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    1. Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib & Olin School of Business & Washington University & Michael K. Pitt & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2004. "Likelihood based inference for diffusion driven models," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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