IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v195y2025ics0960077925003078.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Utility of decisions and beliefs based on bounded-confidence opinion dynamics with group conformity

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao, Kun
  • Zhang, Hongfeng

Abstract

Political parties, groups and organizations deliberately manipulate the direction of public opinion on social media, causing the evolution of group opinions to become increasingly complex driven by the information fusion mechanisms and artificial intelligence technologies. In this context, we propose a dynamic, heterogeneous bounded social model that integrates external group conformity and internal individual attributes, which simulates the role of individual decision-making abilities and beliefs in the evolution of opinions under different conformity scenarios. In this model, we introduce a network formation game process to simulate how users make judgments under the influence of external conformity, which arises from the complex mechanisms generated by numerous informational factors acting on the group. We find that improving the decision-making abilities and beliefs can reduce the chaos in opinion evolution. In the scenario of informational conformity, the high degree of individual beliefs can suppress opinion fragmentation. Moreover, when the proportion of normative conformity increases, the enhancement of decision-making can further reduce the chaos in communication. Thus, we reveal the pathways that guide the trends of opinion evolution in social networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao, Kun & Zhang, Hongfeng, 2025. "Utility of decisions and beliefs based on bounded-confidence opinion dynamics with group conformity," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:195:y:2025:i:c:s0960077925003078
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077925003078
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116294?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farrow, Katherine & Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette, 2017. "Social Norms and Pro-environmental Behavior: A Review of the Evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Luca Braghieri & Ro'ee Levy & Alexey Makarin, 2022. "Social Media and Mental Health," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3660-3693, November.
    3. Vicky Chuqiao Yang & Mirta Galesic & Harvey McGuinness & Ani Harutyunyan, 2021. "Dynamical system model predicts when social learners impair collective performance," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(35), pages 2106292118-, August.
    4. Wang, Xiaoyue & He, Zhixue & Shi, Lei, 2024. "Conformity poses a double-edged sword effect on the evolution of cooperation within heterogeneous endowment populations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    5. Rainer Hegselmann & Ulrich Krause, 2002. "Opinion Dynamics and Bounded Confidence Models, Analysis and Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 5(3), pages 1-2.
    6. Zhang, Wei & Brandes, Ulrik, 2023. "Conformity versus credibility: A coupled rumor-belief model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Fernando P. Santos & Yphtach Lelkes & Simon A. Levin, 2021. "Link recommendation algorithms and dynamics of polarization in online social networks," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(50), pages 2102141118-, December.
    8. Farrow, Katherine & Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette, 2017. "Social Norms and Pro-environmental Behavior: A Review of the Evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Michael Bailey & Drew Johnston & Martin Koenen & Theresa Kuchler & Dominic Russel & Johannes Stroebel, 2024. "Social Networks Shape Beliefs and Behavior: Evidence from Social Distancing during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 463-494.
    10. Valerio Capraro & Roberto Di Paolo & Matjaz Perc & Veronica Pizziol, 2024. "Language-based game theory in the age of artificial intelligence," Papers 2403.08944, arXiv.org.
    11. Spichak, David & Aragoneses, Andrés, 2022. "Exploiting the impact of ordering patterns in the Fisher-Shannon complexity plane," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. Iandoli, Luca & Primario, Simonetta & Zollo, Giuseppe, 2021. "The impact of group polarization on the quality of online debate in social media: A systematic literature review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    13. Guillaume Deffuant & David Neau & Frederic Amblard & Gérard Weisbuch, 2000. "Mixing beliefs among interacting agents," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01n04), pages 87-98.
    14. Justin Farrell & Kathryn McConnell & Robert Brulle, 2019. "Evidence-based strategies to combat scientific misinformation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(3), pages 191-195, March.
    15. Kreps, Sarah & McCain, R. Miles & Brundage, Miles, 2022. "All the News That’s Fit to Fabricate: AI-Generated Text as a Tool of Media Misinformation," Journal of Experimental Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 104-117, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pranesh, Samana & Gupta, Sayan, 2025. "Exploring cognitive inertia in opinion dynamics using an activity-driven model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Sylvie Huet & Jean-Denis Mathias, 2018. "Few Self-Involved Agents Among Bounded Confidence Agents Can Change Norms," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(06n07), pages 1-27, September.
    3. Pérez-Martínez, H. & Bauzá Mingueza, F. & Soriano-Paños, D. & Gómez-Gardeñes, J. & Floría, L.M., 2023. "Polarized opinion states in static networks driven by limited information horizons," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    4. Wu, Hongshuai & Benko, Tina P. & Xu, Haojie & Zou, Kuan & Huang, Changwei, 2025. "The impact of social learners on collective decision-making across varying interaction ranges," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Ni, Xuelian & Xiong, Fei & Pan, Shirui & Chen, Hongshu & Wu, Jia & Wang, Liang, 2023. "How heterogeneous social influence acts on human decision-making in online social networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    6. Cui, Peng-Bi, 2023. "Exploring the foundation of social diversity and coherence with a novel attraction–repulsion model framework," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    7. Fanghella, Valeria & Ibanez, Lisette & Thøgersen, John, 2025. "What you don't know, can't hurt you: Avoiding donation requests for environmental causes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    8. Bartels, Lara & Kesternich, Martin, 2022. "Motivate the crowd or crowd- them out? The impact of local government spending on the voluntary provision of a green public good," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-040, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Schleich, Joachim & Alsheimer, Sven, 2024. "The relationship between willingness to pay and carbon footprint knowledge: Are individuals willing to pay more to offset their carbon footprint if they learn about its size and distance to the 1.5 °C," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    10. Grolleau, Gilles & Ibanez, Lisette & Mzoughi, Naoufel, 2020. "Moral judgment of environmental harm caused by a single versus multiple wrongdoers: A survey experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    11. Ming, Yaxin & Deng, Huixin & Wu, Xiaoyue, 2022. "The negative effect of air pollution on people's pro-environmental behavior," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 72-87.
    12. Shang, Lihui & Zhao, Mingming & Ai, Jun & Su, Zhan, 2021. "Opinion evolution in the Sznajd model on interdependent chains," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    13. Maccarrone, Giovanni & Marini, Marco A. & Tarola, Ornella, 2023. "Shop Until You Drop: the Unexpected Effects of Anticonsumerism and Environmentalism," FEEM Working Papers 330384, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    14. Lu, Xi & Mo, Hongming & Deng, Yong, 2015. "An evidential opinion dynamics model based on heterogeneous social influential power," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 98-107.
    15. Karoline Gamma & Robert Mai & Moritz Loock, 2020. "The Double-Edged Sword of Ethical Nudges: Does Inducing Hypocrisy Help or Hinder the Adoption of Pro-environmental Behaviors?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 351-373, January.
    16. Falk, Armin & Boneva, Teodora & Chopra, Felix, 2021. "Fighting Climate Change: the Role of Norms, Preferences, and Moral Values," CEPR Discussion Papers 16343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Zha, Donglan & Zhang, Chaoqun & Jiang, Pansong & Wang, Fu, 2024. "What makes energy consumption behavior visible? Conceptualization, scale development and validation of customized information feedback," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    18. Shrestha, Sujata & Shrestha, Uttam Babu & Shrestha, Bibek Raj & Maharjan, Shirish & Udas, Erica & Aryal, Kamal, 2024. "Determinants of adoption of climate resilient agricultural solutions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    19. Phu Nguyen-Van & Anne Stenger & Tuyen Tiet, 2021. "Social incentive factors in interventions promoting sustainable behaviors: A meta-analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-27, December.
    20. Cosimo Talò, 2024. "Modelling and Measuring Local Community Engagement (LCE)," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 173(2), pages 475-498, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:195:y:2025:i:c:s0960077925003078. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.