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Consistency of firms' past financial performance measures and future returns

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  • Alwathainani, Abdulaziz M.

Abstract

In this study, I show that growth consistency in firms' past financial performance measures is useful in predicting future stock returns. Firms consistently ranking in the lowest 30 percent of past financial growth measures have greater rates of returns relative to their inconsistent low-growth firm counterparts. The return differential between these two groups increases uniformly with the length of estimation intervals of past performance data. Firms consistently ranking in the top 30 percent of growth rates earn slightly lower returns than inconsistent high-growth firms. These findings indicate that investors overreact to consistency in financial metrics, but this overreaction is more pronounced and persistent for consistent low-growth firms than that for consistent high-performing firms. Regression analyses reveal that consistency of firms' past financial performance predicts subsequent price movement. This association between past growth consistency and future returns is stronger for consistent low-growth firms relative to consistent high-growth firms.

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  • Alwathainani, Abdulaziz M., 2009. "Consistency of firms' past financial performance measures and future returns," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 184-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:bracre:v:41:y:2009:i:3:p:184-196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2009.08.001
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    5. Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Michael R. Roberts, 2016. "The History of the Cross Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 22894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    8. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S. & Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2020. "On the performance of volatility-managed portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 95-117.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth consistency; Financial performance measures; Investors' overreaction; Behavioral models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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