IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v98y2025ics1049007825000442.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment growth target and the composition of government expenditure: Theory and evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Zhaoqiang
  • Li, Jie
  • Ji, Yunyang

Abstract

In the target system of local governments, investment targets have a significant influence on their behaviors. This paper examines the impact of investment target setting on local governments’ fiscal expenditure composition. The theoretical model suggests that investment targets have a positive impact on the proportion of productive expenditure. Based on manually collected investment target data at the prefecture level, the study examines the impact of investment targets on the structure of fiscal expenditure. The findings reveal that investment targets have a significantly positive effect on infrastructure investment expenditure, a significantly negative effect on education and scientific expenditure, and no significant effect on medical and health, as well as family planning expenditure. Baseline results still stand under a battery of robustness checks. Further analysis shows the positive effect of public productive expenditure on regional investment growth rates, indicating improvement in public investment is an important channel to reach investment targets. This paper not only expands research on government objectives but also provides a new perspective on explaining the structure of fiscal expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zhaoqiang & Li, Jie & Ji, Yunyang, 2025. "Investment growth target and the composition of government expenditure: Theory and evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:98:y:2025:i:c:s1049007825000442
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101920
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007825000442
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101920?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florian Haelg & Niklas Potrafke & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "The determinants of social expenditures in OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 233-261, December.
    2. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    3. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Puig, Jorge, 2021. "Growth-friendly fiscal rules? Safeguarding public investment from budget cuts through fiscal rule design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Yu, Yongze & Li, Ke & Duan, Shenglan & Song, Chenchen, 2023. "Economic growth and environmental pollution in China: New evidence from government work reports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Liu, Dayong & Xu, Chunfa & Yu, Yongze & Rong, Kaijian & Zhang, Junyan, 2020. "Economic growth target, distortion of public expenditure and business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Kotera, Go & Okada, Keisuke, 2017. "How does democratization affect the composition of government expenditure?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 145-159.
    7. Chen, Jiachun & Chen, Xia & Hou, Qingsong & Hu, May, 2021. "Haste doesn't bring success: Top-down amplification of economic growth targets and enterprise overcapacity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Liang, Quanxi & Huang, Jinlan & Liang, Mingjun & Li, Jingxiang, 2024. "Economic growth targets and bank risk exposure: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Wei, Xiahai & Li, Hujian & Wang, Yao, 2024. "Does big data infrastructure development promote new enterprises entry: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Andreas Irmen & Johanna Kuehnel, 2009. "Productive Government Expenditure And Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 692-733, September.
    11. Mao, Wenfeng & Cai, Siyuan & Lu, Jun & Yang, Haotian, 2023. "What triggered China's urban debt risk? Snowball effect under the growth target constraint," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Ana Herrero-Alcalde & José Manuel Tránchez-Martín, 2017. "Demographic, political, institutional and financial determinants of regional social expenditure: the case of Spain," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 920-932, June.
    13. Henry Aray, 2019. "A new approach to test the effects of decentralization on public infrastructure investment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1042-1057, July.
    14. Jingtao Zhao & Kewei Cheng, 2023. "Economic growth target management and the quality of economic development: evidences from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(16), pages 2224-2229, September.
    15. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    16. Chen, Zhigang & Lv, Bingyang & Liu, Yongzheng, 2019. "Financial development and the composition of government expenditure: Theory and cross-country evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 600-611.
    17. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2013. "Elections, leaders, and the composition of government spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 18-31.
    18. Chen, Shuping & Huang, Ying & Li, Ningzhong & Shevlin, Terry, 2019. "How does quasi-indexer ownership affect corporate tax planning?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 278-296.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Shulin & Wang, Xianbin & Huang, Liangxiong, 2025. "Economic growth target fluctuation and bond issuance by LGFVs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Sabrina Auci & Laura Castellucci & Manuela Coromaldi, 2021. "How does public spending affect technical efficiency? Some evidence from 15 European countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 108-130, January.
    3. Chiara DEL BO, 2009. "Recent advances in public investment, fiscal policy and growth," Departmental Working Papers 2009-25, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    4. Kuehn, S. & van Veen, A.P. & Muysken, J., 2009. "The adverse effects of government spending on private consumption in new Keynesian models," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    5. Karl Zimmermann, 2019. "Public Infrastructure Provision in the Presence of Terms-of-Trade Effects and Tax Competition," EconStor Preprints 193458, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Afonso, Oscar, 2012. "The impact of public goods and services and public R&D on the non-observed economy size, wages inequality and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1996-2004.
    7. Lifeng Zhang, 2015. "A Multi-sector Model of Public Expenditure and Growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 115(1), pages 73-93, May.
    8. Xiangyan Wang & Jinye Li & Nannan Wang, 2023. "Are Economic Growth Pressures Inhibiting Green Total Factor Productivity Growth?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Hashimzade, Nigar & Myles, Gareth D., 2010. "Growth And Public Infrastructure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(S2), pages 258-274, November.
    10. Ablam Estel APETI & Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Reforms : Fiscal Rules and Public Expenditure Efficiency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2985, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    11. Chandril Bhattacharyya, 2016. "A note on endogenous growth with public capital," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2506-2518.
    12. Daniele Tavani & Luca Zamparelli, 2020. "Growth, income distribution, and the ‘entrepreneurial state’," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 117-141, January.
    13. Oscar Afonso & Sara Monteiro & Maria Thompson, 2014. "Innovation Economy, Productive Public Expenditure and Economic Growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 671-689, November.
    14. Lai, Ching-Chong & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2012. "Optimal nonlinear income taxation with productive government expenditure," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 66-77.
    15. Li, Shouxing & Ding, Lili & Zhao, Xin, 2025. "Does government dual-target management affect local bank credit structure? Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    16. Can Zhang & Tengfei Liu & Jixia Li & Mengzhi Xu & Xu Li & Huachun Wang, 2023. "Economic Growth Target, Government Expenditure Behavior, and Cities’ Ecological Efficiency—Evidence from 284 Cities in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, January.
    17. Angus C. Chu & Ching-Chong Lai, 2012. "On the Growth and Welfare Effects of Defense R&D," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(3), pages 473-492, June.
    18. Ge Jin & Bing Zhang, 2024. "Optimal fiscal policy with a balanced-budget restriction: revisiting Chamley and Barro," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(2), pages 454-485, April.
    19. Zimčík Petr, 2016. "Economic Growth and Budget Constraints: EU Countries Panel Data Analysis," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 87-101, June.
    20. Andreas Irmen & Johanna Kuehnel, 2009. "Productive Government Expenditure And Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 692-733, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:98:y:2025:i:c:s1049007825000442. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.