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Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience

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  • Akyurek, Cem
  • Kutan, Ali M.
  • Yilmazkuday, Hakan

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of Turkey's inflation targeting (IT) experience. We find the IT regime to be an effective framework. Our judgment is based on three broad conclusions supported by empirical analyses. First, fiscal stability is an effective tool for a successful monetary policy. Second, the overnight policy of the Central Bank of Turkey rate is a significant determinant of the changes in market lending rates, which is the preliminary step in the monetary transmission mechanism. Third, recent developments on the broader issue of the effectiveness of interest rate policy in controlling inflation through aggregate demand management and through other channels are encouraging. Based on our findings, we argue that the impact of policy rate changes on economic activity and inflation have become more predictable and changed in the direction in line with theory, improving the transmission capacity of monetary policy.

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  • Akyurek, Cem & Kutan, Ali M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 343-355, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:22:y:2011:i:5:p:343-355
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Faek Menla Ali & Coskun Akdeniz, 2016. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Countries: Is There an Augmented Nonlinear Taylor Rule?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1588, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Jamilov, Rustam & Égert, Balázs, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through and monetary policy asymmetry: A journey into the Caucasian black box," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 57-70.
    3. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2013. "Inflation and interest rates in the presence of a cost channel, wealth effect and agent heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 286-296.
    6. Brada & Kubíček & Kutan & Tomšík, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 357-376, September.
    7. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:53:y:2015:i:5:p:357-376 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. K. Azim Ozdemir, 2015. "Interest Rate Surprises and Transmission Mechanism in Turkey: Evidence from Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 1504, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Sheikh Khurram Fazal & Muhammad Abdus Salam, 2013. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 39-62, Jan-June.
    10. Kutan, Ali & Ozsoz, Emre & Rengifo, Erick, 2012. "Dynamics of Foreign Currency Lending in Turkey," MPRA Paper 36214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Ishak Demir, 2014. "Keep your Word: Time-varying Inflation Targets and Inflation Targeting Performance," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 160-182, March.
    12. Ekin Ayşe Özşuca & Elif Akbostancı, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 589-609, March.
    13. repec:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:3:p:589-609 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Rene Coppe Pimentel & Taufiq Choudhry, 2014. "Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 71-92, January.

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