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A hybrid time-and-event-driven strategy for integrated community energy system planning

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Listed:
  • Qu, Jiawei
  • Hou, Kai
  • Liu, Zeyu
  • Zhou, Yue
  • Zhu, Lewei
  • Dong, Xiaohong
  • Mu, Yunfei
  • Jia, Hongjie

Abstract

Unpredictable events such as technological breakthroughs and energy policy shifts can cause significant errors in the forecast of the parameters like equipment performance and energy demands. Traditional single-stage and fixed multi-stage planning methods struggle with unpredictable events, severely impacting the accuracy of the planning of Integrated Community Energy Systems (ICES). As a solution, a Hybrid Time-and-Event-Driven Multi-Stage Planning (HTED-MSP) method is proposed for ICES. The HTED-MSP method determines the start time of each planning stage based on a combination of time and specific event. Specifically, the event-driven strategy mitigates unpredictable changes in load growth, energy prices, and technological advancements on costs, with trigger conditions determined by marginal cost analysis. Meanwhile, the time-driven strategy enhances long-term reliability of ICES. Considering the significant impact of renewable energy variability and equipment failures on reliability, the HTED-MSP method quantifies these factors using 8760-h normal and N-k contingency scenarios. A State Similarity (SS) method is then proposed to address the computational burden of massive scenarios by simplifying the optimization process into an equation-solving approach. The case study demonstrates that HTED-MSP significantly reduces additional costs caused by unpredictable events. The computational efficiency of the SS method is more than ten times greater than the existing two-stage algorithms.

Suggested Citation

  • Qu, Jiawei & Hou, Kai & Liu, Zeyu & Zhou, Yue & Zhu, Lewei & Dong, Xiaohong & Mu, Yunfei & Jia, Hongjie, 2025. "A hybrid time-and-event-driven strategy for integrated community energy system planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 384(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:384:y:2025:i:c:s0306261925000042
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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