Stochastic optimization of solar-based distributed energy system: An error-based scenario with a day-ahead and real-time dynamic scheduling approach

Distributed energy systems (DES) have garnered global attention as a promising solution for the expansion of renewable energy sources. However, stochastic uncertainty in renewable sources poses significant challenges in the collaboration optimization of system design and operation. In this study, a comparison analysis was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the conventional distribution-based scenario generation (DS) method for stochastic optimization of a distributed energy system in residential buildings. The results revealed that the DS method inaccurately captured extreme scenarios and exhibited limitations in operation optimization, leading to significant performance evaluation bias. To address these challenges, a novel stochastic optimization approach was developed based on error-based scenarios and a day-ahead and real-time dynamic scheduling strategy (ES-DRS). This approach incorporated solar energy prediction errors to more accurately characterize extreme scenarios, while also considering dynamic dual-scale meteorological boundary condition for rolling operation optimization. Furthermore, the buffer storage and coverage periods in ES-DRS were investigated and discussed during dynamic scheduling. Results demonstrated that when the buffer storage and coverage period were set at 36.22 kWh in summer and 24 h, respectively, the DES with ES-DRS achieved optimal multi-objective performance. This resulted in an annual total cost of 3.21 × 104 USD and CO2 emission of 5.82 tons, representing reductions of 26.45% and 61.06%, respectively, compared to the conventional strategy. Overall, this research contributes to advancing uncertainty analysis and scenario-based optimization in DES, highlighting the potential benefits of adopting the ES-DRS approach to maximize overall performance from both economic and environmental perspectives.