Cost-effective energy development pathway considering air quality co-benefits under climate target: A case study of Anhui Province in China

Achieving the national climate targets requires the motivation of local actions. Air quality is still an important environmental issue in China that needs careful consideration in the design of energy development pathways, particularly in locations with a high‑carbon energy system. Using Anhui as a typical example, this study examines the economic costs and air quality synergies of various energy development pathways to achieve its climate goals using the Monte Carlo method and coupling a regional computable general equilibrium model and a reduced-complexity air quality model. The results show that the economic impact of the promoting electrification pathway would be 1.4–4.5% of GDP in 2035, while the loss of GDP from developing the renewable energy pathway would be only 1.1–1.4%. Compared to renewable energy development, promoting higher electrification leads to a larger air quality improvement. Therefore, the cost-effective energy development pathway requests higher electrification when considering air quality co-benefits. Results show that the optimal energy development pathway for Anhui Province in 2035 is a rate of electrification of 25%–35%, with a renewable energy ratio of 15%–25%. The study suggests an appropriate approach for optimizing energy development pathways at the regional level.