IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v351y2023ics030626192301187x.html

A novel short-term multi-energy load forecasting method for integrated energy system based on feature separation-fusion technology and improved CNN

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Ke
  • Mu, Yuchen
  • Yang, Fan
  • Wang, Haiyang
  • Yan, Yi
  • Zhang, Chenghui

Abstract

Integrated energy system (IES) is an important way for energy structure transition and development. Considering the characteristics of large data volume, strong randomness, and multi-energy coupling of IES, this paper proposes a novel short-term multi-energy load forecasting method for IES based on feature separation-fusion technology and improved CNN. Firstly, based on the distribution pattern of pixels in static images, the irregular multi-energy load is reconstructed into 3D load pixel matrix, giving them certain correlation features in both horizontal and vertical directions respectively. Secondly, the feature separation-fusion technology is employed to differentially process distinct features based on their information value differences. Finally, the extracted features are combined and input into a multi-task learning framework with BiLSTM as the shared layer. The hard parameter sharing mechanism is employed to learn the IES multi-coupling information and extract temporal characteristics of the load sequence through BiLSTM. In particular, three different structures of fully connected neural network are designed as feature interpretation modules to accommodate the different prediction requirements of various loads. The simulation results show that the proposed model achieves a weighted mean accuracy of 98.01% during winter days, with an average standard deviation of relative error as low as 0.0242. Among all the contrast models, it exhibits better prediction accuracy and stable error distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Ke & Mu, Yuchen & Yang, Fan & Wang, Haiyang & Yan, Yi & Zhang, Chenghui, 2023. "A novel short-term multi-energy load forecasting method for integrated energy system based on feature separation-fusion technology and improved CNN," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:351:y:2023:i:c:s030626192301187x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192301187X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121823?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Zihan & Zhang, Yang & Chen, Wenbo, 2019. "Electricity price prediction based on hybrid model of adam optimized LSTM neural network and wavelet transform," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Tan, Mao & Liao, Chengchen & Chen, Jie & Cao, Yijia & Wang, Rui & Su, Yongxin, 2023. "A multi-task learning method for multi-energy load forecasting based on synthesis correlation analysis and load participation factor," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    3. Korkmaz, Deniz, 2021. "SolarNet: A hybrid reliable model based on convolutional neural network and variational mode decomposition for hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    4. Zhu, Jizhong & Dong, Hanjiang & Zheng, Weiye & Li, Shenglin & Huang, Yanting & Xi, Lei, 2022. "Review and prospect of data-driven techniques for load forecasting in integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    5. Li, Chuang & Li, Guojie & Wang, Keyou & Han, Bei, 2022. "A multi-energy load forecasting method based on parallel architecture CNN-GRU and transfer learning for data deficient integrated energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    6. Gao, Bixuan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Shi, Junsheng & Tai, Yonghang & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Hourly forecasting of solar irradiance based on CEEMDAN and multi-strategy CNN-LSTM neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1665-1683.
    7. Wang, Shaomin & Wang, Shouxiang & Chen, Haiwen & Gu, Qiang, 2020. "Multi-energy load forecasting for regional integrated energy systems considering temporal dynamic and coupling characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    8. Sun, Qie & Fu, Yu & Lin, Haiyang & Wennersten, Ronald, 2022. "A novel integrated stochastic programming-information gap decision theory (IGDT) approach for optimization of integrated energy systems (IESs) with multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    9. Han, Yan & Mi, Lihua & Shen, Lian & Cai, C.S. & Liu, Yuchen & Li, Kai & Xu, Guoji, 2022. "A short-term wind speed prediction method utilizing novel hybrid deep learning algorithms to correct numerical weather forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    10. Dedinec, Aleksandra & Filiposka, Sonja & Dedinec, Aleksandar & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2016. "Deep belief network based electricity load forecasting: An analysis of Macedonian case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1688-1700.
    11. Qin, Xin & Sun, Hongbin & Shen, Xinwei & Guo, Ye & Guo, Qinglai & Xia, Tian, 2019. "A generalized quasi-dynamic model for electric-heat coupling integrated energy system with distributed energy resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yan, Qin & Lu, Zhiying & Liu, Hong & He, Xingtang & Zhang, Xihai & Guo, Jianlin, 2024. "Short-term prediction of integrated energy load aggregation using a bi-directional simple recurrent unit network with feature-temporal attention mechanism ensemble learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    2. Fan, Pengdan & Wang, Dan & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Xiuyu & Sun, Yuying, 2024. "A novel multi-energy load forecasting method based on building flexibility feature recognition technology and multi-task learning model integrating LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    3. Hu, Rong & Zhou, Kaile & Lu, Xinhui, 2025. "Integrated loads forecasting with absence of crucial factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    4. Gao, Peng & Yang, Yang & Li, Fei & Ge, Jiaxin & Yin, Qianqian & Wang, Ruikun, 2024. "Research on integrated decision making of multiple load combination forecasting for integrated energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    5. Lin, Zhengyang & Lin, Tao & Li, Jun & Li, Chen, 2025. "A novel short-term multi-energy load forecasting method for integrated energy system based on two-layer joint modal decomposition and dynamic optimal ensemble learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 378(PA).
    6. Peng, Daogang & Liu, Yu & Wang, Danhao & Zhao, Huirong & Qu, Bogang, 2024. "Multi-energy load forecasting for integrated energy system based on sequence decomposition fusion and factors correlation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    7. Liu, Tianhao & Li, Fangning & Zhang, Dongdong & Shan, Linke & Zhu, Hongyu & Du, Pengcheng & Jiang, Meihui & Goh, Hui Hwang & Kurniawan, Tonni Agustiono & Huang, Chao & Kong, Fannie, 2026. "Intelligent load forecasting technologies for diverse scenarios in the new power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 226(PD).
    8. Wenting Zhao & Haoran Xu & Peng Chen & Juan Zhang & Jing Li & Tingting Cai, 2025. "Elastic Momentum-Enhanced Adaptive Hybrid Method for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Dong, Hanjiang & Zhu, Jizhong & Li, Shenglin & Wu, Wanli & Zhu, Haohao & Fan, Junwei, 2023. "Short-term residential household reactive power forecasting considering active power demand via deep Transformer sequence-to-sequence networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    10. Zhao, Xiaoyu & Duan, Pengfei & Cao, Xiaodong & Xue, Qingwen & Zhao, Bingxu & Hu, Jinxue & Zhang, Chenyang & Yuan, Xiaoyang, 2025. "A probabilistic load forecasting method for multi-energy loads based on inflection point optimization and integrated feature screening," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    11. Natei Ermias Benti & Mesfin Diro Chaka & Addisu Gezahegn Semie, 2023. "Forecasting Renewable Energy Generation with Machine Learning and Deep Learning: Current Advances and Future Prospects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-33, April.
    12. Li, Kang & Duan, Pengfei & Cao, Xiaodong & Cheng, Yuanda & Zhao, Bingxu & Xue, Qingwen & Feng, Mengdan, 2024. "A multi-energy load forecasting method based on complementary ensemble empirical model decomposition and composite evaluation factor reconstruction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    13. Wang, Danhao & Peng, Daogang & Huang, Dongmei & Zhao, Huirong & Qu, Bogang, 2025. "MMEMformer: A multi-scale memory-enhanced transformer framework for short-term load forecasting in integrated energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    14. Li, Ke & Qin, Zheng & Mu, Yuchen & Wang, Haiyang & Bie, Qingfeng & Yin, Xianxin & Yan, Yi, 2025. "Transfer learning-based multi-energy load forecasting method for integrated energy system with zero-shot," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PC).
    15. Fan, Jingmin & Zhong, Mingwei & Guan, Yuanpeng & Yi, Siqi & Xu, Cancheng & Zhai, Yanpeng & Zhou, Yongwang, 2024. "An online long-term load forecasting method: Hierarchical highway network based on crisscross feature collaboration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    16. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2024. "Two-step deep learning framework with error compensation technique for short-term, half-hourly electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    17. Kohút, Roman & Klaučo, Martin & Kvasnica, Michal, 2025. "Unified carbon emissions and market prices forecasts of the power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PC).
    18. Ma, Xin & Peng, Bo & Ma, Xiangxue & Tian, Changbin & Yan, Yi, 2023. "Multi-timescale optimization scheduling of regional integrated energy system based on source-load joint forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    19. Li, Ke & Mu, Yuchen & Yang, Fan & Wang, Haiyang & Yan, Yi & Zhang, Chenghui, 2024. "Joint forecasting of source-load-price for integrated energy system based on multi-task learning and hybrid attention mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    20. Song, Cairong & Yang, Haidong & Cai, Jianyang & Yang, Pan & Bao, Hao & Xu, Kangkang & Meng, Xian-Bing, 2024. "Multi-energy load forecasting via hierarchical multi-task learning and spatiotemporal attention," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:351:y:2023:i:c:s030626192301187x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.