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A Short-Term Electricity Load Complementary Forecasting Method Based on Bi-Level Decomposition and Complexity Analysis

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  • Xun Dou

    (College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China)

  • Yu He

    (College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China)

Abstract

With the increasing complexity of the power system and the increasing load volatility, accurate load forecasting plays a vital role in ensuring the safety of power supply, optimizing scheduling decisions and resource allocation. However, the traditional single model has limitations in extracting the multi-frequency features of load data and processing components with varying complexity. Therefore, this paper proposes a complementary forecasting method based on bi-level decomposition and complexity analysis. In the paper, Pyraformer is used as a complementary model for the Single Channel Enhanced Periodicity Decoupling Framework (SCEPDF). Firstly, a Hodrick Prescott Filter (HP Filter) is used to decompose the electricity data, extracting the trend and periodic components. Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) is used to further decompose the periodic components to obtain several IMF components. Secondly, based on the sample entropy, spectral entropy, and Lempel–Ziv complexity, a complexity evaluation index system is constructed to comprehensively analyze the complexity of each IMF component. Then, based on the comprehensive complexity of each IMF component, different components are fed into the complementary model. The predicted values of each component are combined to obtain the final result. Finally, the proposed method is tested on the quarterly electrical load dataset. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through comparative and ablation experiments. The experimental results show that the proposed method demonstrates excellent performance in short-term electricity load forecasting tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Xun Dou & Yu He, 2025. "A Short-Term Electricity Load Complementary Forecasting Method Based on Bi-Level Decomposition and Complexity Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:13:y:2025:i:7:p:1066-:d:1620183
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