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Multi-energy load forecasting for regional integrated energy systems considering temporal dynamic and coupling characteristics

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  • Wang, Shaomin
  • Wang, Shouxiang
  • Chen, Haiwen
  • Gu, Qiang

Abstract

—Accurate multi-energy load forecasting (MELF) is the key to realize the balance between supply and demand in regional integrated energy systems (RIES). To this end, a hybrid MELF method for RIES considering temporal dynamic and coupling characteristics (MELF_TDCC) is proposed. The novelty of MELF_TDCC lies in the following three aspects: 1) considering the high-dimensional temporal dynamic characteristic, an encoder-decoder model based on long-short term memory network (LSTMED) is proposed, which can extract the high dimensional potential feature, and reflect the temporal dynamic characteristics of historical load sequence effectively; 2) considering the cross-coupling characteristic, a coupling feature matrix of multi-energy load is constructed, which reflects the cross-influence of electricity, cooling and heating loads; 3) with the feature fusion layer of the hybrid model being built by gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), the extended feature matrix for each class of load is constructed considering the intra-class inherent characteristics and inter-class coupling characteristic of loads, and the GBDT model is trained on the extended feature matrix, which provides multi-dimensional perspective for researching load essential characteristics. MELF_TDCC is verified on the ultra-short-term and short-term MELF scenarios based on an actual dataset. The simulation result shows that the proposed MELF_TDCC outperforms the current advanced methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Shaomin & Wang, Shouxiang & Chen, Haiwen & Gu, Qiang, 2020. "Multi-energy load forecasting for regional integrated energy systems considering temporal dynamic and coupling characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220300712
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.116964
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    12. Wang, Yongli & Ma, Yuze & Song, Fuhao & Ma, Yang & Qi, Chengyuan & Huang, Feifei & Xing, Juntai & Zhang, Fuwei, 2020. "Economic and efficient multi-objective operation optimization of integrated energy system considering electro-thermal demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    13. Dong, Hanjiang & Zhu, Jizhong & Li, Shenglin & Wu, Wanli & Zhu, Haohao & Fan, Junwei, 2023. "Short-term residential household reactive power forecasting considering active power demand via deep Transformer sequence-to-sequence networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    14. Ren, Fukang & Wei, Ziqing & Zhai, Xiaoqiang, 2022. "A review on the integration and optimization of distributed energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    15. Zheng, Ling & Zhou, Bin & Cao, Yijia & Wing Or, Siu & Li, Yong & Wing Chan, Ka, 2022. "Hierarchical distributed multi-energy demand response for coordinated operation of building clusters," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    16. Xue, Guixiang & Qi, Chengying & Li, Han & Kong, Xiangfei & Song, Jiancai, 2020. "Heating load prediction based on attention long short term memory: A case study of Xingtai," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    17. Tan, Mao & Liao, Chengchen & Chen, Jie & Cao, Yijia & Wang, Rui & Su, Yongxin, 2023. "A multi-task learning method for multi-energy load forecasting based on synthesis correlation analysis and load participation factor," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    18. Lu, Zhiming & Gao, Yan & Xu, Chuanbo, 2021. "Evaluation of energy management system for regional integrated energy system under interval type-2 hesitant fuzzy environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    19. Che, Jinxing & Yuan, Fang & Zhu, Suling & Yang, Youlong, 2022. "An adaptive ensemble framework with representative subset based weight correction for short-term forecast of peak power load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    20. Wang, Yongli & Huang, Feifei & Tao, Siyi & Ma, Yang & Ma, Yuze & Liu, Lin & Dong, Fugui, 2022. "Multi-objective planning of regional integrated energy system aiming at exergy efficiency and economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).

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