IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i8p2331-d539798.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting of Heat Production in Combined Heat and Power Plants Using Generalized Additive Models

Author

Listed:
  • Maciej Bujalski

    (PGE Energia Ciepła S.A., ul. Złota 59, 00-120 Warszawa, Poland
    Department of Power Systems and Environmental Protection Facilities, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Robotics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicz 30 Av., 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

  • Paweł Madejski

    (Department of Power Systems and Environmental Protection Facilities, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Robotics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicz 30 Av., 30-059 Krakow, Poland)

Abstract

The paper presents a developed methodology of short-term forecasting for heat production in combined heat and power (CHP) plants using a big data-driven model. An accurate prediction of an hourly heat load in the day-ahead horizon allows a better planning and optimization of energy and heat production by cogeneration units. The method of training and testing the predictive model with the use of generalized additive model (GAM) was developed and presented. The weather data as an input variables of the model were discussed to show the impact of weather conditions on the quality of predicted heat load. The new approach focuses on an application of the moving window with the learning data set from the last several days in order to adaptively train the model. The influence of the training window size on the accuracy of forecasts was evaluated. Different versions of the model, depending on the set of input variables and GAM parameters were compared. The results presented in the paper were obtained using a data coming from the real district heating system of a European city. The accuracy of the methods during the different periods of heating season was performed by comparing heat demand forecasts with actual values, coming from a measuring system located in the case study CHP plant. As a result, a model with an averaged percentage error for the analyzed period (November–March) of less than 7% was obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Maciej Bujalski & Paweł Madejski, 2021. "Forecasting of Heat Production in Combined Heat and Power Plants Using Generalized Additive Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:2331-:d:539798
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/8/2331/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/8/2331/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sameti, Mohammad & Haghighat, Fariborz, 2019. "Optimization of 4th generation distributed district heating system: Design and planning of combined heat and power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 371-387.
    2. Khamma, Thulasi Ram & Zhang, Yuming & Guerrier, Stéphane & Boubekri, Mohamed, 2020. "Generalized additive models: An efficient method for short-term energy prediction in office buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    3. Suryanarayana, Gowri & Lago, Jesus & Geysen, Davy & Aleksiejuk, Piotr & Johansson, Christian, 2018. "Thermal load forecasting in district heating networks using deep learning and advanced feature selection methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 141-149.
    4. Fang, Tingting & Lahdelma, Risto, 2016. "Evaluation of a multiple linear regression model and SARIMA model in forecasting heat demand for district heating system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 544-552.
    5. Wang, Jiawei & You, Shi & Zong, Yi & Cai, Hanmin & Træholt, Chresten & Dong, Zhao Yang, 2019. "Investigation of real-time flexibility of combined heat and power plants in district heating applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 196-209.
    6. Dotzauer, Erik, 2002. "Simple model for prediction of loads in district-heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(3-4), pages 277-284, November.
    7. Magnus Dahl & Adam Brun & Oliver S. Kirsebom & Gorm B. Andresen, 2018. "Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, June.
    8. Gerald Schweiger & Fabian Kuttin & Alfred Posch, 2019. "District Heating Systems: An Analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats of the 4GDH," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Nigitz, Thomas & Gölles, Markus, 2019. "A generally applicable, simple and adaptive forecasting method for the short-term heat load of consumers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 73-81.
    10. Spoladore, Alessandro & Borelli, Davide & Devia, Francesco & Mora, Flavio & Schenone, Corrado, 2016. "Model for forecasting residential heat demand based on natural gas consumption and energy performance indicators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 488-499.
    11. Fang, Tingting & Lahdelma, Risto, 2016. "Optimization of combined heat and power production with heat storage based on sliding time window method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 723-732.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tim Voigt & Martin Kohlhase & Oliver Nelles, 2021. "Incremental DoE and Modeling Methodology with Gaussian Process Regression: An Industrially Applicable Approach to Incorporate Expert Knowledge," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Szega, Marcin & Żymełka, Piotr & Janda, Tomasz, 2022. "Improving the accuracy of electricity and heat production forecasting in a supervision computer system of a selected gas-fired CHP plant operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    3. Triebs, Merlin Sebastian & Tsatsaronis, George, 2022. "From heat demand to heat supply: How to obtain more accurate feed-in time series for district heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vahid Arabzadeh & Peter D. Lund, 2020. "Effect of Heat Demand on Integration of Urban Large-Scale Renewable Schemes—Case of Helsinki City (60 °N)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Mengting Jiang & Camilo Rindt & David M. J. Smeulders, 2022. "Optimal Planning of Future District Heating Systems—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-38, September.
    3. Binglin Li & Yong Shao & Yufeng Lian & Pai Li & Qiang Lei, 2023. "Bayesian Optimization-Based LSTM for Short-Term Heating Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Kurek, Teresa & Bielecki, Artur & Świrski, Konrad & Wojdan, Konrad & Guzek, Michał & Białek, Jakub & Brzozowski, Rafał & Serafin, Rafał, 2021. "Heat demand forecasting algorithm for a Warsaw district heating network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Tang, Huajie & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Han, Zhao & Zhang, Ji & Sheng, Ying, 2020. "Identification heat user behavior for improving the accuracy of heating load prediction model based on wireless on-off control system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    6. Xue, Puning & Jiang, Yi & Zhou, Zhigang & Chen, Xin & Fang, Xiumu & Liu, Jing, 2019. "Multi-step ahead forecasting of heat load in district heating systems using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    7. Abdollahi, Elnaz & Lahdelma, Risto, 2020. "Decomposition method for optimizing long-term multi-area energy production with heat and power storages," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Magnus Dahl & Adam Brun & Oliver S. Kirsebom & Gorm B. Andresen, 2018. "Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, June.
    9. Gong, Mingju & Zhao, Yin & Sun, Jiawang & Han, Cuitian & Sun, Guannan & Yan, Bo, 2022. "Load forecasting of district heating system based on Informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    10. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    11. Kristensen, Martin Heine & Hedegaard, Rasmus Elbæk & Petersen, Steffen, 2020. "Long-term forecasting of hourly district heating loads in urban areas using hierarchical archetype modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    12. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei, 2021. "Analysis and evaluation of the operation data for achieving an on-demand heating consumption prediction model of district heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    13. Ifaei, Pouya & Nazari-Heris, Morteza & Tayerani Charmchi, Amir Saman & Asadi, Somayeh & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2023. "Sustainable energies and machine learning: An organized review of recent applications and challenges," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    14. Lange, Jelto & Kaltschmitt, Martin, 2022. "Probabilistic day-ahead forecast of available thermal storage capacities in residential households," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    15. Costanza Saletti & Mirko Morini & Agostino Gambarotta, 2020. "The Status of Research and Innovation on Heating and Cooling Networks as Smart Energy Systems within Horizon 2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-27, June.
    16. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin, 2019. "Deep learning for multi-scale smart energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 98-112.
    17. Lumbreras, Mikel & Garay-Martinez, Roberto & Arregi, Beñat & Martin-Escudero, Koldobika & Diarce, Gonzalo & Raud, Margus & Hagu, Indrek, 2022. "Data driven model for heat load prediction in buildings connected to District Heating by using smart heat meters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    18. Huang, Ke & Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Zheng, Xuejing, 2022. "Analysis and evaluation of heat source data of large-scale heating system based on descriptive data mining techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    19. Wang, Jiawei & You, Shi & Zong, Yi & Træholt, Chresten & Dong, Zhao Yang & Zhou, You, 2019. "Flexibility of combined heat and power plants: A review of technologies and operation strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Saletti, Costanza & Zimmerman, Nathan & Morini, Mirko & Kyprianidis, Konstantinos & Gambarotta, Agostino, 2021. "Enabling smart control by optimally managing the State of Charge of district heating networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:2331-:d:539798. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.