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Benchmarking robustness of load forecasting models under data integrity attacks

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  • Luo, Jian
  • Hong, Tao
  • Fang, Shu-Cherng

Abstract

As the internet’s footprint continues to expand, cybersecurity is becoming a major concern for both governments and the private sector. One such cybersecurity issue relates to data integrity attacks. This paper focuses on the power industry, where the forecasting processes rely heavily on the quality of the data. Data integrity attacks are expected to harm the performances of forecasting systems, which will have a major impact on both the financial bottom line of power companies and the resilience of power grids. This paper reveals the effect of data integrity attacks on the accuracy of four representative load forecasting models (multiple linear regression, support vector regression, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy interaction regression). We begin by simulating some data integrity attacks through the random injection of some multipliers that follow a normal or uniform distribution into the load series. Then, the four aforementioned load forecasting models are used to generate one-year-ahead ex post point forecasts in order to provide a comparison of their forecast errors. The results show that the support vector regression model is most robust, followed closely by the multiple linear regression model, while the fuzzy interaction regression model is the least robust of the four. Nevertheless, all four models fail to provide satisfying forecasts when the scale of the data integrity attacks becomes large. This presents a serious challenge to both load forecasters and the broader forecasting community: the generation of accurate forecasts under data integrity attacks. We construct our case study using the publicly-available data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012. At the end, we also offer an overview of potential research topics for future studies.

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  • Luo, Jian & Hong, Tao & Fang, Shu-Cherng, 2018. "Benchmarking robustness of load forecasting models under data integrity attacks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 89-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:1:p:89-104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.08.004
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    6. Fath U Min Ullah & Noman Khan & Tanveer Hussain & Mi Young Lee & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Diving Deep into Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and a Novel Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-22, March.
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    11. Sobhani, Masoud & Hong, Tao & Martin, Claude, 2020. "Temperature anomaly detection for electric load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 324-333.
    12. Liang, Yi & Niu, Dongxiao & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2019. "Short term load forecasting based on feature extraction and improved general regression neural network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 653-663.
    13. Yao Zhang & Fan Lin & Ke Wang, 2020. "Robustness of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting against False Data Injection Attacks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Dong-Hoon Kim & Eun-Kyu Lee & Naik Bakht Sania Qureshi, 2020. "Peak-Load Forecasting for Small Industries: A Machine Learning Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-19, August.
    15. Luo, Jian & Hong, Tao & Gao, Zheming & Fang, Shu-Cherng, 2023. "A robust support vector regression model for electric load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1005-1020.
    16. Wang, Huaizhi & Meng, Anjian & Liu, Yitao & Fu, Xueqian & Cao, Guangzhong, 2019. "Unscented Kalman Filter based interval state estimation of cyber physical energy system for detection of dynamic attack," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    17. Gao, Zheming & Fang, Shu-Cherng & Luo, Jian & Medhin, Negash, 2021. "A kernel-free double well potential support vector machine with applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 248-262.
    18. Fahd A. Alturki & Emad Mahrous Awwad, 2021. "Sizing and Cost Minimization of Standalone Hybrid WT/PV/Biomass/Pump-Hydro Storage-Based Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-20, January.
    19. VandenHeuvel, Daniel & Wu, Jinran & Wang, You-Gan, 2023. "Robust regression for electricity demand forecasting against cyberattacks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1573-1592.
    20. Spiliotis, Evangelos & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2019. "Tales from tails: On the empirical distributions of forecasting errors and their implication to risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 687-698.
    21. Hany Habbak & Mohamed Mahmoud & Khaled Metwally & Mostafa M. Fouda & Mohamed I. Ibrahem, 2023. "Load Forecasting Techniques and Their Applications in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.
    22. Koziel, Sylvie & Hilber, Patrik & Westerlund, Per & Shayesteh, Ebrahim, 2021. "Investments in data quality: Evaluating impacts of faulty data on asset management in power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).

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