IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v328y2025ics0360544225020341.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heating energy consumption prediction based on improved GA-BP neural network model

Author

Listed:
  • Jie, Pengfei
  • Zhou, Yuan
  • Zhang, Zhijie
  • Wei, Fengjun

Abstract

An improved genetic algorithm-back propagation (GA-BP) neural network model with fixed seeds, reasonable training sample size (TSS) and total number of nodes in hidden layer (TNNHL), as well as metabolism was established to predict heating energy consumption, thereby optimizing district heating (DH) operating strategies. Error variance, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R2) were used as evaluation indicators. Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and entropy weight methods were employed to comprehensively evaluate the prediction accuracy and acquire the optimal combination of TSS and TNNHL. A DH system in Beijing, China was used as the case study. Results show that the prediction results under fixed seeds are better and more stable compared with random initialization. Error variance, MAPE, and R2 vary between 0.0016 and 0.0202, 2.43% and 5.18%, and 0.590 and 0.967, respectively, when TSS and TNNHL change from 2 to 9 and 2 to 14, respectively. Error variance is positively correlated with MAPE and negatively correlated with R2. When TSS and TNNHL are both 2, the best prediction accuracy can be obtained, with error variance, MAPE, and R2 of 0.0016, 2.43%, and 0.967, respectively, verifying the accuracy of the proposed model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie, Pengfei & Zhou, Yuan & Zhang, Zhijie & Wei, Fengjun, 2025. "Heating energy consumption prediction based on improved GA-BP neural network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225020341
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136392
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225020341
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.136392?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Chendong & Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Zhang, Ji & Zheng, Lihong & Zhou, Zhihua & Zhang, Yufeng, 2022. "Research on thermal load prediction of district heating station based on transfer learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    2. Gu, Jihao & Wang, Jin & Qi, Chengying & Min, Chunhua & Sundén, Bengt, 2018. "Medium-term heat load prediction for an existing residential building based on a wireless on-off control system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 709-718.
    3. Protić, Milan & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Petković, Dalibor & Abbasi, Almas & Mat Kiah, Miss Laiha & Unar, Jawed Akhtar & Živković, Ljiljana & Raos, Miomir, 2015. "Forecasting of consumers heat load in district heating systems using the support vector machine with a discrete wavelet transform algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 343-351.
    4. Cao, Wenqiang & Yu, Junqi & Chao, Mengyao & Wang, Jingqi & Yang, Siyuan & Zhou, Meng & Wang, Meng, 2023. "Short-term energy consumption prediction method for educational buildings based on model integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Cui, Mianshan, 2022. "District heating load prediction algorithm based on bidirectional long short-term memory network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    6. Wang, Chendong & Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhang, Ji & Deng, Na & Zhou, Zhihua & Gao, Feng, 2020. "Multi-criteria comprehensive study on predictive algorithm of heating energy consumption of district heating station based on timeseries processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Wei, Ziqing & Zhang, Tingwei & Yue, Bao & Ding, Yunxiao & Xiao, Ran & Wang, Ruzhu & Zhai, Xiaoqiang, 2021. "Prediction of residential district heating load based on machine learning: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    8. Koschwitz, D. & Frisch, J. & van Treeck, C., 2018. "Data-driven heating and cooling load predictions for non-residential buildings based on support vector machine regression and NARX Recurrent Neural Network: A comparative study on district scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 134-142.
    9. Suryanarayana, Gowri & Lago, Jesus & Geysen, Davy & Aleksiejuk, Piotr & Johansson, Christian, 2018. "Thermal load forecasting in district heating networks using deep learning and advanced feature selection methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 141-149.
    10. Powell, Kody M. & Sriprasad, Akshay & Cole, Wesley J. & Edgar, Thomas F., 2014. "Heating, cooling, and electrical load forecasting for a large-scale district energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 877-885.
    11. Yin, Peng & Xie, Jingchao & Ji, Ying & Liu, Jiaping & Hou, Qixian & Zhao, Shanshan & Jing, Pengfei, 2023. "Winter indoor thermal environment and heating demand of low-quality centrally heated houses in cold climates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    12. Zheng, Xuejing & Shi, Zhiyuan & Wang, Yaran & Zhang, Huan & Tang, Zhiyun, 2024. "Digital twin modeling for district heating network based on hydraulic resistance identification and heat load prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    13. Werner, Sven, 2017. "International review of district heating and cooling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 617-631.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Zhou, Zhihua, 2022. "Evaluation of the operation data for improving the prediction accuracy of heating parameters in heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    2. Xue, Puning & Jiang, Yi & Zhou, Zhigang & Chen, Xin & Fang, Xiumu & Liu, Jing, 2019. "Multi-step ahead forecasting of heat load in district heating systems using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    3. Song, Jiancai & Wang, Kangning & Bian, Tianxiang & Li, Wen & Dong, Qianxing & Chen, Lei & Xue, Guixiang & Wu, Xiangdong, 2025. "A novel heat load prediction algorithm based on fuzzy C-mean clustering and mixed positional encoding informer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    4. Mengting Jiang & Camilo Rindt & David M. J. Smeulders, 2022. "Optimal Planning of Future District Heating Systems—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-38, September.
    5. Xue, Guixiang & Qi, Chengying & Li, Han & Kong, Xiangfei & Song, Jiancai, 2020. "Heating load prediction based on attention long short term memory: A case study of Xingtai," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Binglin Li & Yong Shao & Yufeng Lian & Pai Li & Qiang Lei, 2023. "Bayesian Optimization-Based LSTM for Short-Term Heating Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-14, August.
    7. Hua, Pengmin & Wang, Haichao & Xie, Zichan & Lahdelma, Risto, 2024. "District heating load patterns and short-term forecasting for buildings and city level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    8. Wang, Chendong & Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhang, Ji & Deng, Na & Zhou, Zhihua & Gao, Feng, 2020. "Multi-criteria comprehensive study on predictive algorithm of heating energy consumption of district heating station based on timeseries processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    9. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Tang, Huajie & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Han, Zhao & Zhang, Ji & Sheng, Ying, 2020. "Identification heat user behavior for improving the accuracy of heating load prediction model based on wireless on-off control system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    10. Kim, Ryunhee & Hong, Yejin & Choi, Youngwoong & Yoon, Sungmin, 2021. "System-level fouling detection of district heating substations using virtual-sensor-assisted building automation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. Wang, Yanmin & Li, Zhiwei & Liu, Junjie & Pei, Mingzhe & Zhao, Yan & Lu, Xuan, 2023. "Data-driven analysis and prediction of indoor characteristic temperature in district heating systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    12. Andrea Menapace & Simone Santopietro & Rudy Gargano & Maurizio Righetti, 2021. "Stochastic Generation of District Heat Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Ling, Jihong & Zhang, Bingyang & Dai, Na & Xing, Jincheng, 2023. "Coupling input feature construction methods and machine learning algorithms for hourly secondary supply temperature prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    14. Dong, Zhe & Cheng, Zhonghua & Zhu, Yunlong & Zhang, Zuoyi & Dong, Yujie & Huang, Xiaojin, 2024. "Passivity-based control of fluid flow networks with capacitance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    15. Runge, Jason & Saloux, Etienne, 2023. "A comparison of prediction and forecasting artificial intelligence models to estimate the future energy demand in a district heating system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    16. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    17. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei, 2021. "Analysis and evaluation of the operation data for achieving an on-demand heating consumption prediction model of district heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    18. Munćan, Vladimir & Mujan, Igor & Macura, Dušan & Anđelković, Aleksandar S., 2024. "The state of district heating and cooling in Europe - A literature-based assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    19. Chanuk Lee & Dong Eun Jung & Donghoon Lee & Kee Han Kim & Sung Lok Do, 2021. "Prediction Performance Analysis of Artificial Neural Network Model by Input Variable Combination for Residential Heating Loads," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Mengyao Lu & Guitao Xu & Jianjuan Yuan, 2023. "Installation Principle and Calculation Model of the Representative Indoor Temperature-Monitoring Points in Large-Scale Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-19, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225020341. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.