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Multi-criteria comprehensive study on predictive algorithm of heating energy consumption of district heating station based on timeseries processing

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  • Wang, Chendong
  • Yuan, Jianjuan
  • Zhang, Ji
  • Deng, Na
  • Zhou, Zhihua
  • Gao, Feng

Abstract

Refined control of district heating station relies on reasonable and accurate prediction of heating energy consumption. Due to the influence of building thermal inertia and time-delay of the district heating system, certain research work is necessary to thoroughly illustrate and analyze the impact of data timeseries processing on various prediction models. Four kinds of prediction algorithms were investigated and compared in this paper. Results showed that all of three timeseries processing methods, namely time feature construction, sliding window and building thermal inertia coefficient (CBTI), can improve the prediction accuracy of all four models and CBTI had the greatest impact on model accuracy improvement. Moreover, timeseries processing method has no limitation on the types of prediction model and it is a general method to improve the model accuracy. Time feature construction and sliding window had greater influence on the non-neural network models while CBTI was the opposite. In terms of model robustness, the robustness had been significantly improved after introducing timeseries processing except random forest, and the comprehensive robustness coefficient for the other three models had been reduced by about 95%. Recurrent neural network had extremely excellent robustness under different temporal granularity.

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  • Wang, Chendong & Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhang, Ji & Deng, Na & Zhou, Zhihua & Gao, Feng, 2020. "Multi-criteria comprehensive study on predictive algorithm of heating energy consumption of district heating station based on timeseries processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:202:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220308215
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117714
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    Cited by:

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    2. Saloux, Etienne & Candanedo, José A., 2021. "Model-based predictive control to minimize primary energy use in a solar district heating system with seasonal thermal energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    3. Wang, Chendong & Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Zhang, Ji & Zheng, Lihong & Zhou, Zhihua & Zhang, Yufeng, 2022. "Research on thermal load prediction of district heating station based on transfer learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    4. Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Zhou, Zhihua & Lu, Shilei, 2021. "A new feedback predictive model for improving the operation efficiency of heating station based on indoor temperature," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    5. Huang, Ke & Lu, Shilei & Han, Zhao & Yuan, Jianjuan, 2023. "Research on heat consumption detection, restoration and prediction methods for discontinuous heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    6. Xue, Guixiang & Qi, Chengying & Li, Han & Kong, Xiangfei & Song, Jiancai, 2020. "Heating load prediction based on attention long short term memory: A case study of Xingtai," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    7. Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Han, Zhao & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Zhou, Zhihua, 2022. "Evaluation of the operation data for improving the prediction accuracy of heating parameters in heating substation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    8. Yuan, Jianjuan & Huang, Ke & Lu, Shilei & Zhang, Ji & Han, Zhao & Zhou, Zhihua, 2022. "Analysis of influencing factors on heat consumption of large residential buildings with different occupancy rates-Tianjin case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    9. Lizárraga-Morazán, Juan Ramón & Picón-Núñez, Martín, 2023. "Optimal sizing and control strategy of low temperature solar thermal utility systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).

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