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An analysis of the investment risk related to the integration of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant with an absorption installation for CO2 separation


  • Bartela, Łukasz
  • Skorek-Osikowska, Anna
  • Kotowicz, Janusz


For two variants of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant a thermodynamic, economic and risk analyses were carried out. The first variant consists of a unit working without realization of CO2 capture process. The second one is the unit integrated with a chemical absorption CO2 capture installation. In this variant the heat required for the desorption process is supplied with steam extracted from the steam turbine. The developed model of the CHP plant allowed to obtain main operation characteristics for annual change of load. For the two analyzed variants the characteristics of the amount of produced electricity (gross and net), generated heat and consumed chemical energy of fuel, as a function of the cogeneration unit operation time per year, were determined. In the next stage of calculations these characteristics were required to carry out the economic and risk analysis. Economic performances were evaluated in terms of the break-even price of electricity. The performed analysis proves that both investment projects will achieve the same economic effect, i.e. 85.26€/MWh, if the price of emissions allowances reaches the value of 47.88€/MgCO2. In this case, the potentially better variant of the system may be indicated based on the result of the risk analysis. In order to perform the risk analysis the main technical and economic risk factors concerning implementation of this technology were identified. The risk analysis was conducted with the use of Monte Carlo method. Based on the determined cumulative probability curves of obtaining specified values of the break-even price of electricity, it was possible to obtain values for defined in the paper indices of the investment risk assessment. The results of risk analysis are presented and discussed in the paper.

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  • Bartela, Łukasz & Skorek-Osikowska, Anna & Kotowicz, Janusz, 2015. "An analysis of the investment risk related to the integration of a supercritical coal-fired combined heat and power plant with an absorption installation for CO2 separation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 423-435.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:156:y:2015:i:c:p:423-435
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.07.045

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bartela, Łukasz & Skorek-Osikowska, Anna & Kotowicz, Janusz, 2014. "Economic analysis of a supercritical coal-fired CHP plant integrated with an absorption carbon capture installation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 513-523.
    2. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
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    4. Kotowicz, Janusz & Michalski, Sebastian, 2014. "Efficiency analysis of a hard-coal-fired supercritical power plant with a four-end high-temperature membrane for air separation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 109-119.
    5. Kotowicz, Janusz & Bartela, Łukasz, 2012. "Optimisation of the connection of membrane CCS installation with a supercritical coal-fired power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 118-127.
    6. Manzolini, G. & Sanchez Fernandez, E. & Rezvani, S. & Macchi, E. & Goetheer, E.L.V. & Vlugt, T.J.H., 2015. "Economic assessment of novel amine based CO2 capture technologies integrated in power plants based on European Benchmarking Task Force methodology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 546-558.
    7. Di Lorenzo, Giuseppina & Pilidis, Pericles & Witton, John & Probert, Douglas, 2012. "Monte-Carlo simulation of investment integrity and value for power-plants with carbon-capture," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 467-478.
    8. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Development of cogeneration in Germany: A mean-variance portfolio analysis of individual technology’s prospects in view of the new regulatory framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5301-5313.
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    10. Hedin, Niklas & Andersson, Linnéa & Bergström, Lennart & Yan, Jinyue, 2013. "Adsorbents for the post-combustion capture of CO2 using rapid temperature swing or vacuum swing adsorption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 418-433.
    11. Goto, Kazuya & Yogo, Katsunori & Higashii, Takayuki, 2013. "A review of efficiency penalty in a coal-fired power plant with post-combustion CO2 capture," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 710-720.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdul Manaf, Norhuda & Qadir, Abdul & Abbas, Ali, 2016. "Temporal multiscalar decision support framework for flexible operation of carbon capture plants targeting low-carbon management of power plant emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 912-926.
    2. repec:eee:energy:v:150:y:2018:i:c:p:601-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wang, Yuelan & Ma, Zengyi & Shen, Yueliang & Tang, Yijun & Ni, Mingjiang & Chi, Yong & Yan, Jianhua & Cen, Kefa, 2016. "A power-saving control strategy for reducing the total pressure applied by the primary air fan of a coal-fired power plant," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 380-388.
    4. Hughes, Larry & de Jong, Moniek & Wang, Xiao Qin, 2016. "A generic method for analyzing the risks to energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 895-908.


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