IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v312y2025ics0378377425001623.html

Estimation of unplanned water use based on system dynamics model in arid areas

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Xin
  • Tan, Minghong
  • Xiao, Xingyuan

Abstract

The rational utilization of water resources is crucial for the sustainable development of arid areas. However, the swift increase in agricultural water use has resulted in ecological challenges, potentially escalating into environmental crises in arid areas. Considering the sustainable utilization of water resources, a significant portion of agricultural water use is provided by the government through systematic planning, which is called planned water use. By contrast, unplanned water use is the unauthorized extraction of groundwater, river water, or lake water. Although unplanned water use may be a major contributor to ecological problems, estimating unplanned water use has been a challenge due to the lack of comprehensive data on unplanned water use in the relevant sectors. This study evaluated unplanned water use in the northern slope of the Tian Mountains in Xinjiang, considering the overall water use situation of various industries based on system dynamics. The results showed that unplanned water use has increased rapidly, mainly due to rapid expansion of cropland and limited growth in planned water use. The proportion of unplanned water use of all water use reached a maximum proportion of 35.2 % in 2020. This phenomenon should be attracted attention from various sectors of society. Finally, the study proposed recommendations for future improvements and deeper research, aiming to provide insights for water resources management and unplanned water use governance in arid areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xin & Tan, Minghong & Xiao, Xingyuan, 2025. "Estimation of unplanned water use based on system dynamics model in arid areas," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:312:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425001623
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109448
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425001623
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109448?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xue Zhang & Lirong Xu & Chunhui Li, 2022. "Sustainability of Water Resources in Shandong Province Based on a System Dynamics Model of Water–Economy–Society for the Lower Yellow River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Eberlein, Robert L. & Peterson, David W., 1992. "Understanding models with Vensim(TM)," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 216-219, May.
    3. Junbo Wang & Liu Chen & Lu Chen & Xiaohui Zhao & Minxi Wang & Yiyi Ju & Li Xin, 2019. "City-Level Features of Energy Footprints and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Sichuan Province of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, May.
    4. Yitong Yin & Gang Lin & Dong Jiang & Jingying Fu & Donglin Dong, 2021. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of a Water–Energy Coupling System Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Ningbo City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Xuehui & Qin, Guopeng & Yin, Feihu & Liu, Jian & Lin, Haixia & YueWen, & Wang, Zhen & Javed, Tehseen & Zhang, Jinzhu & Wang, Zhenhua, 2025. "Multi-objective optimization of cropping structures and irrigation strategies for sustainable agricultural development in arid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Made Adi Widyatmika & Nomesh B. Bolia, 2026. "Optimizing waste management through enhancement of citizen motivation," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 8047-8069, April.
    2. Maria Cleofe Giorgino & Federico Barnabè & Martin Kunc, 2020. "Integrating qualitative system dynamics with accounting practices: The case of integrated reporting and resource mapping," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 97-118, January.
    3. Wang, Xipan & Song, Junnian & Xing, Jiahao & Duan, Haiyan & Wang, Xian'en, 2022. "System nexus consolidates coupling of regional water and energy efficiencies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    4. Ding, Yueting & Chen, Sai & Zheng, Yilei & Chai, Shanglei & Nie, Rui, 2022. "Resilience assessment of China's natural gas system under supply shortages: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    5. Patrick Smith, F. & Holzworth, Dean P. & Robertson, Michael J., 2005. "Linking icon-based models to code-based models: a case study with the agricultural production systems simulator," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 135-151, February.
    6. Lane, David & Husemann, Elke & Holland, Darren & Khaled, Abdul, 2019. "Understanding foodborne transmission mechanisms for Norovirus: A study for the UK's Food Standards Agency," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 721-736.
    7. Huatao Peng & Geert Duysters & Bert Sadowski, 2016. "The changing role of guanxi in influencing the development of entrepreneurial companies: a case study of the emergence of pharmaceutical companies in China," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 215-258, March.
    8. Kerong Zhang & Liangyu Jiang & Yanzhi Jin & Wuyi Liu, 2022. "The Carbon Emission Characteristics and Reduction Potential in Developing Areas: Case Study from Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-28, December.
    9. Hongmei Liu & Rong Guo & Junjie Tian & Honghao Sun & Yi Wang & Haiyan Li & Lu Yao, 2022. "Quantifying the Carbon Reduction Potential of Recycling Construction Waste Based on Life Cycle Assessment: A Case of Jiangsu Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Jae-Ho Yoo & Hana Kim, 2024. "A new city's water–energy nexus implications: The case of Sejong City in South Korea," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(6), pages 2975-2990, September.
    11. Cheng, Yung-Hsiang & Chang, Yu-Hern & Lu, I.J., 2015. "Urban transportation energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 953-973.
    12. Sterman, John. & Diehl, Ernst-Walter., 1993. "Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making," Working papers 3608-93., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    13. Shamsuddoha, Mohammad & Woodside, Arch G., 2022. "Achieving radical process innovations by applying technology-mindset transformations via second-order system-dynamics engineering," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 37-48.
    14. Federico Barnabè & Maria Cleofe Giorgino & Martin Kunc, 2019. "Visualizing and managing value creation through integrated reporting practices: a dynamic resource-based perspective," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 23(2), pages 537-575, June.
    15. Farhad Yazdandoost & Sogol Moradian & Ardalan Izadi, 2020. "Evaluation of Water Sustainability under a Changing Climate in Zarrineh River Basin, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4831-4846, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:312:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425001623. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.