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Expanded Implementation of Solar Photovoltaics: Forecasting and Risk Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Bura Ahmetzhanov

    (Karaganda State Technical University, Kazakhstan,)

  • Kashamida Tazhibekova

    (Karaganda State Technical University, Kazakhstan,)

  • Aigerim Shametova

    (Karaganda State Technical University, Kazakhstan,)

  • Abay Urazbekov

    (Karaganda State Technical University, Kazakhstan,)

Abstract

This research is a forecast of solar photovoltaics (PV) implementation made for a period through to 2030. The leading factors of PV development that were included into the forecast model are the price for PV modules, the efficiency of silicon solar panels, the price of lithium-ion batteries, the price of lithium and the silicon PV module manufacture. The model is based on the calculations made for the coefficients of correlation between the installed capacity and economic factors. The ARIMA forecasting method was applied to generate forecasts for each factor and installed capacity riding on specific factor’s back. The calculated coefficients show a strong correlation between the installed capacity and the above listed factors. According to the generated forecasts, the efficiency factor will reach an abstract limit of 30% by 2030. Investments in photovoltaics will increase up to 70%; this is 10% higher than current level.

Suggested Citation

  • Bura Ahmetzhanov & Kashamida Tazhibekova & Aigerim Shametova & Abay Urazbekov, 2018. "Expanded Implementation of Solar Photovoltaics: Forecasting and Risk Assessment," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 113-118.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-05-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnold, Uwe & Yildiz, Özgür, 2015. "Economic risk analysis of decentralized renewable energy infrastructures – A Monte Carlo Simulation approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 227-239.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Photovoltaics (PV); Forecasting; Risk Assessment of PV Implementation; PV power; Correlation Coefficients;

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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