IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2019-04-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Delayed Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Testing Model

Author

Listed:
  • Salem Kanoun

    (Universit de Tunis El Manar, Facult des Sciences Economique et de Gestion de Tunis, LR11ES08 Micro conomie Appliqu e, B.P 248-2092, Tunis, Tunisie,)

Abstract

This study is an attempt to quantify the delayed fiscal adjustment using an accounting framework and to test its short and long run effects on growth in Tunisia by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over the period 1975-2015. We find that delayed fiscal adjustment hurts per capita GDP growth not only in the short run but also in the long run, which raises arguable evidence that the implementation of IMF supported programs is truly necessary in Tunisia in time of crisis particularly when public finance regulatory forces and the ability to adjust fail and become non-functional. This implies that any delay in bringing forward fiscal reforms is counterproductive in the short run and will result in net losses in per capita GDP growth in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Salem Kanoun, 2019. "Delayed Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Testing Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 148-155.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2019-04-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/8026/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/8026/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 488-545.
    2. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Alejandro Simone & Sanjeev Gupta & Qiang Cui, 2010. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(1), pages 18-37, March.
    2. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Alejandro Simone & Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2006. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 2006/244, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Wissem Khanfir, 2019. "Keynesian or Non-keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: the Case of Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 335-347, March.
    4. Gautam Negi, 2021. "Fiscal Impulse And Sectoral Output €“ Evidence From Indian States," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 28, pages 151-167, December.
    5. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    6. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    7. Kelbesa Megersa & Danny Cassimon, 2015. "Public Debt, Economic Growth, and Public Sector Management in Developing Countries: Is There a Link?," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 329-346, December.
    8. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2006. "Thresholds Effects in Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a simple Cash-in-Advance Endogenous Growth Model," Post-Print halshs-00261219, HAL.
    9. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    10. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2006. "Long-Run Monetary and Fiscal Policy Trade-Off in an Endogenous Growth Model with Transaction Costs," Post-Print halshs-00261119, HAL.
    11. Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2012. "The New Structuralist Macroeconomics and Income Inequality," Working Papers - Economics wp2012_25.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    12. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    13. Asztalos, Viktor, 2015. "Politikai változások a költségvetési kiigazítások tükrében [Political changes in the light of fiscal adjustments]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1196-1210.
    14. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2022. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone [Tales of fiscal adjustment]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 552-575.
    15. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    16. Ramu M R, Anantha & Gayithri, K, 2016. "Fiscal deficit composition and economic growth relation in India: A time series econometric analysis," MPRA Paper 76304, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Sep 2016.
    17. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    18. Sheremirov, Viacheslav & Spirovska, Sandra, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: Evidence from military spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    19. Ziogas, Thanasis & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Revisiting the political economy of fiscal adjustments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    20. Bohl, Martin T. & Michaelis, Philip & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 195-207.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Sustainability; Delayed fiscal Adjustment; Economic Growth; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2019-04-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.