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Delayed Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Testing Model

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Listed:
  • Salem Kanoun

    (Universit de Tunis El Manar, Facult des Sciences Economique et de Gestion de Tunis, LR11ES08 Micro conomie Appliqu e, B.P 248-2092, Tunis, Tunisie,)

Abstract

This study is an attempt to quantify the delayed fiscal adjustment using an accounting framework and to test its short and long run effects on growth in Tunisia by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over the period 1975-2015. We find that delayed fiscal adjustment hurts per capita GDP growth not only in the short run but also in the long run, which raises arguable evidence that the implementation of IMF supported programs is truly necessary in Tunisia in time of crisis particularly when public finance regulatory forces and the ability to adjust fail and become non-functional. This implies that any delay in bringing forward fiscal reforms is counterproductive in the short run and will result in net losses in per capita GDP growth in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Salem Kanoun, 2019. "Delayed Fiscal Adjustment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Testing Model," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, vol. 9(4), pages 148-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2019-04-17
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 488-545.
    2. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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