IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-17-00592.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price Discovery in Some Primary Commodity Markets in India

Author

Listed:
  • Raushan Kumar

    (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics)

Abstract

With the onset of wide-ranging economic reforms in India in 1991, agents have been exposed to increased price risk in commodity markets. Futures markets are one important instrument for reducing price risk, and in this study we focus on the price discovery role of futures markets. Employing daily price data for nine crops for the period 2009-2014, we find strong causation running from futures to spot prices. Since spot prices impinge on the storage and cropping pattern decisions of farmers, our results imply that providing information on futures price to farmers would enable them to take more efficient decisions in the present.

Suggested Citation

  • Raushan Kumar, 2017. "Price Discovery in Some Primary Commodity Markets in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1817-1829.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00592
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2017/Volume37/EB-17-V37-I3-P165.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nidhi Aggarwal & Sargam Jain & Susan Thomas, 2014. "Do futures markets help in price discovery and risk management for commodities in India?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-020, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.
    3. repec:cup:cbooks:9781107034662 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Debashis Acharya & M. Suresh Babu, 2014. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in futures and spot commodity markets," Journal of Advances in Management Research, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(2), pages 211-226, July.
    5. Param Silvapulle & Imad A. Moosa, 1999. "The relationship between spot and futures prices: Evidence from the crude oil market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 175-193, April.
    6. Graham Elliott & Ulrich K. Muller, 2006. "Efficient Tests for General Persistent Time Variation in Regression Coefficients," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 907-940.
    7. Moledina, Amyaz A. & Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew, 2004. "Measuring Commodity Price Volatility And The Welfare Consequences Of Eliminating Volatility," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19963, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Holbrook Working, 1948. "Theory of the Inverse Carrying Charge in Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-28.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    10. Brooks,Chris, 2014. "Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107661455, December.
    11. Vishwanathan Iyer & Archana Pillai, 2010. "Price discovery and convergence in the Indian commodities market," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(1), pages 53-61, April.
    12. Jabir Ali & Kriti Bardhan Gupta, 2011. "Efficiency in agricultural commodity futures markets in India," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(2), pages 162-178, August.
    13. Hernandez, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Imad A. Moosa, 2002. "Price Discovery and Risk Transfer in the Crude Oil Futures Market: Some Structural Time Series Evidence," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 31(1), pages 155-165, February.
    15. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1979. "Dominant and Satellite Markets: A Study of Dually-Traded Securities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 455-460, August.
    16. Imad A. Moosa & Nabeel E. Al‐Loughani, 1995. "The effectiveness of arbitrage and speculation in the crude oil futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 167-186, April.
    17. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    18. Yatchew,Adonis, 2003. "Semiparametric Regression for the Applied Econometrician," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521012263.
    19. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. "Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    20. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    21. Crain, Susan J & Lee, Jae Ha, 1996. "Volatility in Wheat Spot and Futures Markets, 1950-1993: Government Farm Programs, Seasonality, and Causality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 325-343, March.
    22. P., Srinivasan, 2011. "Price Discovery and Volatility Spillovers in Indian Spot-Futures Commodity Market," MPRA Paper 47412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Shihabudheen, M.T. & Padhi, Puja, 2010. "Price Discovery and Volatility Spillover Effect in Indian Commodity Market," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 65(1), pages 1-17.
    24. Thomas V. Schwarz & Andrew C. Szakmary, 1994. "Price discovery in petroleum markets: Arbitrage, cointegration, and the time interval of analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 147-167, April.
    25. Yatchew, A., 1997. "An elementary estimator of the partial linear model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 135-143, December.
    26. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muneer Shaik & Abhiram Kartik Lanka & Gurmeet Singh, 2021. "Analysis of lead-lag relationship and volatility spillover: evidence from Indian agriculture commodity markets," International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 258-279.
    2. Raushan Kumar, 2021. "Predicting Wheat Futures Prices in India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(1), pages 121-140, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xu Xiaojie, 2018. "Linear and Nonlinear Causality between Corn Cash and Futures Prices," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, November.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gungor, Hasan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "The time-varying causality between spot and futures crude oil prices: A regime switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 51-71.
    3. Lucia BALDI & Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE, 2011. "Spot and future prices of agricultural commodities: fundamentals and speculation," Departmental Working Papers 2011-03, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    4. Salman Sarwat & Muhammad Kashif & Muhammad Aqil & Farhan Ahmed, 2019. "Determination of Causality in Prices of Crude Oil," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 298-304.
    5. Raushan Kumar, 2021. "Predicting Wheat Futures Prices in India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(1), pages 121-140, March.
    6. Sarveshwar Kumar Inani, 2018. "Price Discovery and Efficiency of Indian Agricultural Commodity Futures Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 129-154, March.
    7. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Distributional predictability between commodity spot and futures: Evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 615-628.
    8. Xiaojie Xu, 2018. "Cointegration and price discovery in US corn cash and futures markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1889-1923, December.
    9. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, C.W. & Hwang, M.J., 2009. "The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: A multivariate threshold regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 91-98, January.
    10. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl, 2018. "Price discovery dynamics in European agricultural markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 549-562, May.
    11. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang & Liyu Liu, 2023. "Asymmetric price adjustment and price discovery in spot and futures markets of agricultural commodities," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 27(1), pages 139-162, February.
    12. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2011. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodities: The Shifting Relationship Between Spot and Future Prices," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114237, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Pradita Nareswari & Sigit S. Wibowo, 2020. "Global and Local Commodity Prices: A Further Look at the Indonesian Agricultural Commodities," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 65-76.
    14. Miroslava Zavadska & Lucía Morales & Joseph Coughlan, 2018. "The Lead–Lag Relationship between Oil Futures and Spot Prices—A Literature Review," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    15. Joseph, Anto & Sisodia, Garima & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2014. "A frequency domain causality investigation between futures and spot prices of Indian commodity markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 250-258.
    16. Massimo Peri & Lucia Baldi & Daniela Vandone, 2013. "Price discovery in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 397-403, March.
    17. Martin T. Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Pierre L. Siklos & Christoph Sulewski, 2021. "Information transmission under increasing political tensions—Evidence from the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887–1896," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 226-244, February.
    18. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Cash and Futures Markets: The Role of Cash Market Selection," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169809, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. P. Srinivasan & P. Ibrahim, 2012. "Price Discovery and Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers in Indian Spot-Futures Gold Markets," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 5(3), pages 65-80, December.
    20. Hernandez, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures markets; spot markets; primary commodities; developing country;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00592. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.