Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Multifactor Loadings and Pricing Errors
This paper considers an environment where investors have limited knowledge of true systematic risks and therefore continuously re-estimate the forecasting model that they use to form expectations. Based on a parsimonious specification with learning and no conditioning information, I extract time-varying factor loadings, pricing errors, and a measure of pricing uncertainty for the Fama-French three-factor model. Estimated parameters display significant fluctuations over time, both short-run and long-term, along patterns that vary across industry portfolios. Besides being markedly variable across portfolios and over time, abnormal returns and risk loadings also display strong systematic correlations with market conditions and business-cycle developments. Overall, the estimates convey the idea that over the past two decades stocks have experienced a pervasive increase in the variability of their exposure to fundamental risks.
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009.
"Learning in Financial Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
14646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adrian, Tobias & Franzoni, Francesco, 2009.
"Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-556, September.
- Francesco FRANZONI & Tobias ADRIAN, . "Learning about Beta: Time-Varying Factor Loadings, Expected Returns,and the Conditional CAPM," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-36, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Tobias Adrian & Francesco Franzoni, 2008. "Learning about beta: time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM," Staff Reports 193, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Franzoni, Francesco & Adrian, Tobias, 2005. "Learning about Beta: time-varying factor loadings, expected returns and the conditional CAPM," Les Cahiers de Recherche 828, HEC Paris.
- Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2003.
"The Conditional CAPM Does Not Explain Asset-pricing Anomalies,"
4427-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2006. "The conditional CAPM does not explain asset-pricing anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-314, November.
- Jonathan Lewellen & Stefan Nagel, 2003. "The Conditional CAPM does not Explain Asset-Pricing Anamolies," NBER Working Papers 9974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pietro Veronesi & Tano Santos, 2004. "Conditional Betas," 2004 Meeting Papers 24, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
- Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2007.
"CAPM over the long run: 1926-2001,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-40, January.
- Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Conditional Betas," NBER Working Papers 10413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmine Trecroci, 2010.
"How do alphas and betas move? Uncertainty, learning and time variation in risk loadings,"
1012, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
- Carmine Trecroci, 2014. "How Do Alphas and Betas Move? Uncertainty, Learning and Time Variation in Risk Loadings," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 257-278, 04.
- Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Betas," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(04), pages 747-778, December.
- Jonathan Lewellen & Stefan Nagel & Jay Shanken, 2006.
"A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset-Pricing Tests,"
NBER Working Papers
12360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001.
"Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Paskalis Glabadanidis, 2009. "A Dynamic Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Factor and Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(3), pages 247-264, Summer.
- Santos, Tano & Veronesi, Pietro, 2010. "Habit formation, the cross section of stock returns and the cash-flow risk puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 385-413, November.
- Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2006. "The Value Premium and the CAPM," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2163-2185, October.
- Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, 02.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-12-00626. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.