Testing for a nonlinear Fisher relationship
Empirical evidence regarding the Fisher effect is mixed. One reason may be a nonlinear adjustment process in the real interest rate. The nonlinear unit root test proposed by Sollis, Leybourne, and Newbold (Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 34: 686-700, 2002) is used to test for stationarity of the U.S. real interest rate over the 1934:01-2011:02 period and selected subperiods. The unit root null in the real rate of interest can be rejected over the full sample, evidence of a Fisher effect. Weaker evidence of a Fisher relation is found in the subsample for 1934:01-1959:12 for which the unit root null can be rejected for one measure of the real interest rate. However, there is no indication of a Fisher effect for subperiods starting in 1960 or later. A conjecture is that temporal aggregation of the interest rate data may explain the different results, but the findings are also consistent with other explanations.
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008.
"Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 609-642.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Working Papers 2008-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Sollis, Robert & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Tests for Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 686-700, August.
- Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. Leãn-Ledesma, 2007. "A Long-Run Non-Linear Approach to the Fisher Effect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 543-559, March.
- Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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