Nonlinear Mean Reversion and Arbitrage in the Gold Futures Market
Previous literatures take transaction costs as being negligible when analyzing the futures basis behavior in linear dynamic framework. However, we argue that the relationship between the futures and spot prices with the conventional linear cointegration approach may not be appropriate after taking transaction costs into account. In this paper, an incorporation of transaction costs presented by Dumas (1992) and Michael (1997) into the exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model developed by Granger and Terasvita (1993) is motivated to examine the dynamic relationship between daily gold futures and spot prices and the nonlinear behavior of the gold futures basis. Transaction costs may lead to the existence of neutral band for futures market speculation within which profitable trading opportunities are impossible. Further, our results indicate that the ESTAR model provides higher forecasting power than the linear AR(1) model.
Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
- Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2000. "A Re-Examination of Purchasing Power Parity in Japan and Taiwan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 271-284, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07f30020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.