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Determä°Nants Of Employment Ä°N Turkey: An Ardl Analysä°S Of Commercä°Al And Fä°Nancä°Al Dynamä°Cs

Author

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  • Ömer YILMAZ

    (GAZÄ°ANTEP ÃœNÄ°VERSÄ°TESÄ°)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de istihdamın belirleyicilerini ticari ve finansal dinamiklere odaklanarak analiz etmektedir. İstihdam, ekonomik büyüme ve sosyal refahın temel bir göstergesidir. 1990-2024 yılları arasındaki yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada ihracatın (LNEX, ihracat hacminin doğal logaritması) ve yurt içi kredinin (LNKREDİ, toplam yurt içi kredinin doğal logaritması) istihdamı (LNİSTİHDAM, toplam istihdamın doğal logaritması) nasıl etkilediği incelenmektedir. ARDL (Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeli) modeli hem kısa hem de uzun vadeli ilişkileri yakalamaktadır. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) ve Phillips-Perron (PP) birim kök testlerinden elde edilen sonuçlar, diğer durağanlık testleriyle birlikte, değişkenlerin farklı düzeylerde durağan olduğunu göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla, ARDL yaklaşımı uygundur. F-Sınırları testi, uzun vadeli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Uzun vadeli tahminler, ihracatın istihdam üzerinde güçlü ve pozitif bir etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Artan kredi hacmi de istihdamı önemli ölçüde desteklemektedir. Hata düzeltme katsayısı -0,501 olup, negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Bu, kısa vadeli dengesizliklerin yaklaşık yarısının tek bir dönem içinde düzeltildiği anlamına gelir. Bulgular, Türkiye'de ticaret açıklığı ve finansal derinleşmenin üretim kapasitesini ve istihdamı iyileştirdiğini göstermektedir. İstihdamı sürdürmek için ihracatı, finansal erişilebilirliği ve reel sektöre daha iyi kredi akışını teşvik eden politikalar sürdürülmelidir.

Suggested Citation

  • Ömer YILMAZ, 2026. "Determä°Nants Of Employment Ä°N Turkey: An Ardl Analysä°S Of Commercä°Al And Fä°Nancä°Al Dynamä°Cs," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 42(42), pages 77-86, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eas:buseco:v:42:y:2025:i:42:p:77-86
    DOI: 10.17740/eas.econ.2025-V42-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feenstra, Robert C. & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2019. "US exports and employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 46-58.
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