Potential Benefits to the State of Qatar from Membership in the GCC Customs Union
This paper uses cointegration and regression analyses to assess potential benefits to the State of Qatar from the recently established Customs Union between the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Unitesd Arab Emirates. This assessment is based on an analysis of the long-term relationship between Qatar Intra-trade with other members of the GCC and Qatar total trade. The LR tests based on maximal eigenvalue of the stochastic matrix and the trace of the stochastic matrix suggest that the null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected for Qatar intra-trade with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, the null hypothesis of no cointegration should be rejected for Qatar intra-trade with Kuwait and Oman. Thus, there is evidence of long-term relationship between Qatar intra-trade with those two GCC members and Qatar total trade with non-GCC countries. The regression results suggest that Qatar total intra- trade with both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grew at a much faster rate than Qatar total trade with non-GCC members during the period 1980-2000. Hence, the postulates of the theory of customs unions gradually become increasingly more relevant to Qatar trade with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. On the other hand, the past growth of Qatar intra-trade with Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman suggests that Qatar economic integration with these three members is not likely to increase Qatar's economic welfare if the current path of intra-trade growth continues.
Volume (Year): 2 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dickey, David A & Rossana, Robert J, 1994. "Cointegrated Time Series: A Guide to Estimation and Hypothesis Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(3), pages 325-353, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:2:y:2002:i:2_1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.