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Macro-Econometric Models Of Supply And Demand: Industry, Trade And Wages In 6 Countries, 1960-2012

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Abstract

We analyse the impact of industry on non industrial production, as well as its effect on wages and employment in 6 OECD countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States for the period 1960-2012. Our approach to macro-econometric modelling have into account both demand and supply sides, including not only the effects of primary inputs but also those of intermediate inputs (domestic and imported). We present some estimated equations, and analysis of causality, with a panel of those countries. We show that excessive delocalization of industry, for 2003-2012, and austerity policies, for 2009-2012, have had a negative effect on wages and development. The main conclusion is that industrialized countries should make compatible their foreign trade policy with domestic development, avoiding strong and unsustainable trade deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Guisan, M.C., 2013. "Macro-Econometric Models Of Supply And Demand: Industry, Trade And Wages In 6 Countries, 1960-2012," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(2), pages 45-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:13:y:2013:i:2_4
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    1. Guisan, M.Carmen & Cancelo, M.Teresa, 2001. "Economic Development in OECD Countries during the 20th Century," Economic Development 49, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    2. FRIAS-PINEDO, Isidro, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks And The Business Cycle In Spain: Is The 2008 Financial Crisis Different?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(2), pages 15-26.
    3. Guisan, M.Carmen & Aguayo, Eva & Exposito, Pilar, 2001. "Economic growth and cycles: Cross-country models of education, industry and fertility and international comparisons," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 9-37.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    5. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. GUISAN, Maria-Carmen & AGUAYO, Eva, 2020. "Employment And Quality Of Life Of Women In Spain: Evolution 1970-2020 And International Comparisons," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(2), pages 57-74.
    2. Olofin, S.O. & Salisu, A.A & Tule, M.K, 2020. "Revised Small Macro-Econometric Model Of The Nigerian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 97-116.
    3. Christopher E.S. WARBURTON, 2017. "International Trade And Industrial Recovery In The Usa," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(1), pages 5-22.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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