IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/diw/diwvjh/78-4-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Schätzung des Risikos der Bevölkerung durch Terroranschläge als Ergänzung für sicherheitsökonomische Betrachtungen

Author

Listed:
  • Dietmar Borst
  • Ute Werner

Abstract

To provide a foundation for political decisions regarding terrorism in Germany, this risk must be thoroughly analyzed. Therefore, an objective risk assessment has to be undertaken. This was done in a sub-project of "Risk Map Germany" (www.cedim.de). Such a spatial mapping of risks requires a precise definition and delineation of relevant risk components. This paper focuses on the terrorism-induced risk of the population. The regional magnitude of the threat and the distinctive vulnerability of different groups of people are analyzed. Following an explanation of the risk concept used and its components in chapter 2, we introduce our methodology of risk assessment in chapter 3. Chapter 4 contains exemplary applications. Chapter 5 concludes the paper with a short discussion of data needs, limitations of the methodology presented and further research potential. Um politische Entscheidungen zum Umgang mit dem Terrorismus in Deutschland treffen zu können, ist eine eingehende Analyse dieses Risikos in allen seinen Facetten vonnöten. Eine Grundlage dafür bildet die Schätzung des objektiven Risikos. Letzteres wurde im Teilprojekt "manmade hazards" der "Risikokarte Deutschland" (www.cedim.de) verfolgt. Die räumliche Abbildung von Risiken verlangt nach einer präzisen Abgrenzung und Definition relevanter Risikokomponenten. Im vorliegenden Beitrag steht das Risiko der Bevölkerung durch Terrorismus im Fokus. Hierzu werden das regionale Ausmaß der Gefährdung und die spezifische Vulnerabilität verschiedener Bevölkerungsgruppen analysiert. Nach einer Erläuterung des verwendeten Risikokonzepts und seiner Komponenten (Kapitel 2) wird das methodische Vorgehen zur Risikoschätzung in Kapitel 3 vorgestellt. Kapitel 4 enthält exemplarische Anwendungen der Methodik. Das abschließende Fazit im 5. Kapitel umfasst eine kurze Diskussion von Datenbedarf beziehungsweise Einsatzmöglichkeiten der vorgestellten Methodik und identifiziert weiteren Forschungsbedarf.

Suggested Citation

  • Dietmar Borst & Ute Werner, 2009. "Schätzung des Risikos der Bevölkerung durch Terroranschläge als Ergänzung für sicherheitsökonomische Betrachtungen," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 101-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-4-9
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.78.4.101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.78.4.101
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3790/vjh.78.4.101?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George E. Apostolakis & Douglas M. Lemon, 2005. "A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 361-376, April.
    2. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Beverly Porter, 2003. "Assessing, Managing, and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 10179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Spengler, Hannes, 2004. "Kompensatorische Lohndifferenziale und der Wert eines statistischen Lebens in Deutschland," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 133, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    4. Spengler, Hannes, 2004. "Kompensatorische Lohndifferenziale und der Wert eines statistischen Lebens in Deutschland," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 37281, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Konstantinos Drakos, 2011. "Security Economics: A Guide For Data Availability And Needs," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 147-159.
    6. Ute Werner, 2008. "Risk and IT in Insurances," International Handbooks on Information Systems, in: Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), Handbook on Information Technology in Finance, chapter 14, pages 311-331, Springer.
    7. Spengler, Hannes, 2004. "Kompensatorische Lohndifferenziale und dr Wert eines statistischen Lebens in Deutschland," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 22615, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    8. Spengler, Hannes, 2009. "Kompensatorische Lohndifferenziale und der Wert eines statistischen Lebens in Deutschland," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77423, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    9. Tilman Brück & Marie Karaisl & Friedrich Schneider, 2008. "A Survey of the Economics of Security," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 1, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Entorf, Horst & Meyer, Susanne & Möbert, Jochen & Spengler, Hannes, 2005. "Sparzwang und Kriminalitätsrisiko : gibt es Zusammenhänge? Offene Fragen, und erste Ergebnisse aus einem Forschungsprojekt," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 21919, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    2. Olaf J. de Groot, 2012. "Analyzing the costs of military engagement," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 41-49, July.
    3. Daniel Johnson & Judith Exl & Sylvie Geisendorf, 2021. "The Potential of Stormwater Management in Addressing the Urban Heat Island Effect: An Economic Valuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Entorf, Horst, 2008. "Wirkung und Effizienz von Strafrecht: "Was geht?" - bei jungen Gewalttätern?," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-056, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Entorf, Horst, 2005. "Islamistischer Terrorismus : Analysen, Entwicklungen und Anti-Terrorpolitik aus der Sicht ökonomischer Forschung," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 24551, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    6. Entorf, Horst, 2007. "Evaluation des Maßregelvollzugs: Grundzüge einer Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35718, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    7. Schaffner, Sandra & Spengler, Hannes, 2010. "Using job changes to evaluate the bias of value of a statistical life estimates," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 15-27, January.
    8. repec:zbw:rwirep:0014 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hannes Spengler & Sandra Schaffner, 2007. "Using Job Changes to Evaluate the Bias of the Value of a Statistical Life," Ruhr Economic Papers 0014, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Hannes Spengler & Sandra Schaffner, 2007. "Using Job Changes to Evaluate the Bias of the Value of a Statistical Life," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 713, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2009. "Armut, Ungleichheit, wirtschaftliche Schwäche?: Empirische Evidenz und methodische Herausforderungen zum Zusammenhang von Ökonomie und Terrorismus," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 29-40.
    12. Bier, Vicki & Gutfraind, Alexander, 2019. "Risk analysis beyond vulnerability and resilience – characterizing the defensibility of critical systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 626-636.
    13. Chen, Shun & Zhao, Xudong & Chen, Zhilong & Hou, Benwei & Wu, Yipeng, 2022. "A game-theoretic method to optimize allocation of defensive resource to protect urban water treatment plants against physical attacks," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    14. Michael Brzoska, 2009. "Zur Wirksamkeit von Finanzsanktionen als Instrument im Kampf gegen den Terrorismus," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 88-100.
    15. P. Daniel Wright & Matthew J. Liberatore & Robert L. Nydick, 2006. "A Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 514-529, December.
    16. Michael Greenberg, 2012. "Our Deteriorating Physical Structures and Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2008-2009, December.
    17. Hua Li & George E. Apostolakis & Joseph Gifun & William VanSchalkwyk & Susan Leite & David Barber, 2009. "Ranking the Risks from Multiple Hazards in a Small Community," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 438-456, March.
    18. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    19. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2007. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing The Costs Of Terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 1-24, February.
    20. Brück, Tilman & Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José, 2010. "Perceptions, Expectations, and Entrepreneurship: The Role of Extreme Events," IZA Discussion Papers 5351, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Jason R. W. Merrick & Laura A. McLay, 2010. "Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 155-171, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism risk assessment; risk mapping; population at risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B49 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Other
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-4-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.