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Schätzung des Risikos der Bevölkerung durch Terroranschläge als Ergänzung für sicherheitsökonomische Betrachtungen

Author

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  • Dietmar Borst
  • Ute Werner

Abstract

To provide a foundation for political decisions regarding terrorism in Germany, this risk must be thoroughly analyzed. Therefore, an objective risk assessment has to be undertaken. This was done in a sub-project of "Risk Map Germany" (www.cedim.de). Such a spatial mapping of risks requires a precise definition and delineation of relevant risk components. This paper focuses on the terrorism-induced risk of the population. The regional magnitude of the threat and the distinctive vulnerability of different groups of people are analyzed. Following an explanation of the risk concept used and its components in chapter 2, we introduce our methodology of risk assessment in chapter 3. Chapter 4 contains exemplary applications. Chapter 5 concludes the paper with a short discussion of data needs, limitations of the methodology presented and further research potential. Um politische Entscheidungen zum Umgang mit dem Terrorismus in Deutschland treffen zu können, ist eine eingehende Analyse dieses Risikos in allen seinen Facetten vonnöten. Eine Grundlage dafür bildet die Schätzung des objektiven Risikos. Letzteres wurde im Teilprojekt "manmade hazards" der "Risikokarte Deutschland" (www.cedim.de) verfolgt. Die räumliche Abbildung von Risiken verlangt nach einer präzisen Abgrenzung und Definition relevanter Risikokomponenten. Im vorliegenden Beitrag steht das Risiko der Bevölkerung durch Terrorismus im Fokus. Hierzu werden das regionale Ausmaß der Gefährdung und die spezifische Vulnerabilität verschiedener Bevölkerungsgruppen analysiert. Nach einer Erläuterung des verwendeten Risikokonzepts und seiner Komponenten (Kapitel 2) wird das methodische Vorgehen zur Risikoschätzung in Kapitel 3 vorgestellt. Kapitel 4 enthält exemplarische Anwendungen der Methodik. Das abschließende Fazit im 5. Kapitel umfasst eine kurze Diskussion von Datenbedarf beziehungsweise Einsatzmöglichkeiten der vorgestellten Methodik und identifiziert weiteren Forschungsbedarf.

Suggested Citation

  • Dietmar Borst & Ute Werner, 2009. "Schätzung des Risikos der Bevölkerung durch Terroranschläge als Ergänzung für sicherheitsökonomische Betrachtungen," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 101-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:78-4-9
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.78.4.101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George E. Apostolakis & Douglas M. Lemon, 2005. "A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 361-376, April.
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    6. Ute Werner, 2008. "Risk and IT in Insurances," International Handbooks on Information Systems, in: Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), Handbook on Information Technology in Finance, chapter 14, pages 311-331, Springer.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism risk assessment; risk mapping; population at risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B49 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Other
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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