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Regionale Klimaschutzprogramme: zur integrierten Analyse von Kosten des Klimawandels und des Klimaschutzes auf regionaler Ebene

Author

Listed:
  • Ulrich Fahl
  • Henrike Koschel
  • Andreas Löschel
  • Bastian Rühle
  • Helmut Wolf

Abstract

Since the Kyoto protocol has come into force, Germany's federal states are increasingly confronted with the task of undertaking own climate protection measures. This paper introduces the conception of integrated regional climate protection programmes from an economic point of view and points out the scope for their practical implementation at regional level. At first, we explain the federal state's decision problem with respect to a cost-efficient realisation of climate policy targets and the choice of adequate adaptation measures to reduce potential climate damages. The paper continues with an introduction of the methodology of regional climate forecasts (considering as example the development in Hessen until 2100) and with a presentation of the regional impacts of climate change. After providing preliminary estimates of climate damages in Hessen, we discuss concepts for the quantification and evaluation of climate damages as well as categories and costs of adaptation measures. A further main focus is the identification of regionally available CO2-emission reduction measures and their costs. Auch wenn die im Rahmen des Kyoto-Protokolls von Deutschland eingegangene Verpflichtung zur Reduktion von Treibhausgasen nur auf der Bundesebene völker- bzw. EUrechtlich bindend ist, sind die Bundesländer zunehmend gefordert, regionale Strategien als Antwort auf das globale Klimaproblem zu entwickeln. In diesem Beitrag wird gezeigt, welche methodischen Anforderungen an die Konzeption eines integrierten regionalen Klimaschutzprogramms aus ökonomischer Sicht zu stellen sind und welche praktischen Umsetzungsspielräume angesichts der globalen Dimension des Klimaproblems und des nationalen und internationalen klimapolitischen Rahmens auf regionaler Ebene existieren. Zunächst wird das ökonomische Entscheidungskalkül eines Bundeslandes bei der möglichst kosteneffizienten Erreichung klimapolitischer Ziele und bei der Auswahl geeigneter Anpassungsmaßnahmen gegenüber drohenden Klimaschäden erläutert. Es folgt eine Darstellung der Methodik regionaler Klimaprognosen am Beispiel Hessens bis zum Jahr 2100 sowie der regionalen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels. Erste Schadensabschätzungen für Hessen, Konzepte zur Quantifizierung und Bewertung von Klimaschäden sowie Kategorien und Kosten von Anpassungsmaßnahmen werden aufgezeigt. Einen weiteren Schwerpunkt stellt die Identifizierung regional verfügbarer CO2-Vermeidungsmaßnahmen und deren Kosten dar. Bei der klimapolitischen Zielfestlegung sollte die hohe Mobilität der Produktionsfaktoren über die Landesgrenzen hinweg berücksichtigt werden. Die Korridore für klimapolitische Maßnahmen sind bei der Einführung regionaler Klimaschutzprogramme entsprechend moderat und flexibel zu gestalten.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Fahl & Henrike Koschel & Andreas Löschel & Bastian Rühle & Helmut Wolf, 2005. "Regionale Klimaschutzprogramme: zur integrierten Analyse von Kosten des Klimawandels und des Klimaschutzes auf regionaler Ebene," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 74(2), pages 286-309.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:74-2-14
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.74.2.286
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fankhauser, Samuel & Smith, Joel B. & Tol, Richard S. J., 1999. "Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 67-78, July.
    2. Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "The Social Cost of Carbon," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 419-443, October.
    3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Adaptation And Mitigation: Trade-Offs In Substance And Methods," Working Papers FNU-33, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
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