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Die Arbeitsmarkteffekte der Ost-West-Migration: theoretische Überlegungen, Simulationen und empirische Befunde

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  • Herbert Brücker

Abstract

In den gegenwärtigen Mitgliedstaaten der Europäischen Union bestehen erhebliche Befürchtungen, dass die Einführung der Freizügigkeit für die Beitrittsländer zu sinkenden Löhnen und steigender Arbeitslosigkeit führen wird. In diesem Beitrag werden die Effekte der Migration für Einkommen und Arbeitsmarkt in den Ziel- und Herkunftsländern im Rahmen eines einfachen Simulationsmodells kalibriert und die Ergebnisse der Simulationen den empirischen Erkenntnissen ökonometrischer Studien gegenübergestellt. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass die Migration zu einem erheblichen Einkommensgewinn in der Region insgesamt führt, der allerdings überwiegend den Migranten selbst zugute kommt. Bei flexiblen Löhnen und räumenden Arbeitsmärkten gewinnen die Einheimischen in den Zielländern, während die Einheimischen in den Herkunftsländern verlieren. Im Falle von Lohnrigiditäten und Arbeitslosigkeit sind die Effekte umgekehrt. Die Ergebnisse ökonometrischer Studien zeigen, dass die Lohn- und Beschäftigungseffekte der Migration sehr viel geringer als in dem Simulationsmodell ausfallen. Dies könnte darauf zurückzuführen sein, dass Deutschland als offene Volkswirtschaft sich nicht durch sinkende Löhne und steigende Arbeitslosigkeit an eine Ausweitung des Arbeitsangebotes durch Migration anpasst, sondern durch eine Veränderung der Produktions- und Handelsstrukturen.

Suggested Citation

  • Herbert Brücker, 2003. "Die Arbeitsmarkteffekte der Ost-West-Migration: theoretische Überlegungen, Simulationen und empirische Befunde," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 579-593.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:72-40-8
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    File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.72.4.579
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2006. "Arbeitsmarkt und Migration: Eine empirische Analyse der Lohn- und Beschäftigungseffekte der Zuwanderung für Deutschland," HWWI Research Papers 3-4, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).

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