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The fragility of the future and the tug of the past

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Palloni

    (University of Wisconsin–Madison)

  • Laeticia Souza

    (International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG))

Abstract

Background: The cohorts who will reach age 60 after 2010 in the Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC) are beneficiaries of a massive mortality decline that began as early as 1930. The bulk of this decline is due to the diffusion of low-cost medical technologies that improved recovery rates from infectious diseases. This decline has led to distinct changes in the composition of elderly cohorts, especially as those who could experience as adults the negative effects of adverse early conditions survive to old age. Objective: Our goal is to compute the bounds for the size of the effects on old-age mortality of changes in cohorts’ composition by their exposure to adverse early conditions. We calculate estimates for countries in the LAC region that span the entire range of the post-1950 mortality decline. Methods: We use counterfactual population projections to estimate the bounds of the changes in the composition of cohorts by their exposure to adverse early conditions. These are combined with the empirical effects of adverse early conditions on adult mortality to generate estimates of foregone gains in life expectancy at age 60. Results: According to somewhat conservative assumptions, life expectancy at age 60 will at best increase much more slowly than in the past, and will at worst reach a steady state or decline. The foregone gains may be as high as 20% of the projected values over a period of 30 to 50 years; i.e., the time it takes for cohorts who reaped the benefits of the secular mortality decline to become extinct. Conclusions: The changing composition of cohorts by early exposures represents a powerful force that could drag down or halt short-run progress in life expectancy at older ages.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Palloni & Laeticia Souza, 2013. "The fragility of the future and the tug of the past," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(21), pages 543-578.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:29:y:2013:i:21
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rishworth, Andrea & Elliott, Susan J., 2019. "Global environmental change in an aging world: The role of space, place and scale," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 128-136.
    2. Andrea Verhulst & Hiram Beltran-Sanchez & Alberto Palloni, 2019. "Impact of delayed effects on human old-age mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(41), pages 1167-1210.
    3. Alberto Palloni & Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, 2017. "Discrete Barker Frailty and Warped Mortality Dynamics at Older Ages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 655-671, April.
    4. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Ferreira, Matheus L.A., 2018. "The Evolution of the Elderly Labor Force Participation and Retirement in Brazil," OSF Preprints db54h, Center for Open Science.
    5. Martín Caruso Bloeck & Sebastian Galiani & Pablo Ibarrar�n, 2019. "Long-Term Care in Latin America and the Caribbean: Theory and Policy Considerations," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2019), pages 1-32.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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