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Testing the Efficiency of the GIPS Sovereign Debt Markets using an Asymmetrical Volatility Test

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Rudolf RICHTER

    (German University in Cairo, Faculty of Management Technology, New Cairo City, Egypt.)

  • Bachar FAKHRY

    (University of Bedfordshire, Business School, UK.)

Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis has been around since 1962, the theory is based on a simple rule, namely that the price of any asset must fully reflect all available information.Yet there is empirical evidence financial markets are too volatile to be efficient. The empirical evidence suggests that the reaction to events is the crucial factor, rather than the actual information. Generally, market participants react differently to negative and positive market shocks, hinting at asymmetrical effects. This paperanalyses the impact of asymmetrical effects on the efficiency of the financial market during the recent crises. We test the efficiency of the financial markets using the daily prices of the GIPS sovereign debts between June 2007 and December 2011. This allowed us to test the efficiency during the financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis periods. We used a GJR-GARCH based variance bound test based on the test derived by Fakhry & Richter (2015). Our tests provide evidence forfinancial markets being too volatile to be efficient. At the same time, the results are pointing towards bounded rationality rather than irrationality.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Rudolf RICHTER & Bachar FAKHRY, 2016. "Testing the Efficiency of the GIPS Sovereign Debt Markets using an Asymmetrical Volatility Test," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 524-535, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cvv:journ1:v:3:y:2016:i:3:p:524-535
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    2. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    3. Bachar Fakhry & Christian Richter, 2015. "Is the sovereign debt market efficient? Evidence from the US and German sovereign debt markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 339-357, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bachar FAKHRY, 2019. "Happy 20th birthday Euro: An integrated analysis of the stability status in the Eurozone’s equity markets," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 227-256, September.
    2. Bachar FAKHRY, 2019. "Did Brexit change the behaviour of the UK’s financial markets?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 98-121, June.
    3. Bachar Fakhry, 2019. "Behavioural Finance: Reviews on EuroZone and Brexit," EconSciences Library Books, EconSciences Library Books, edition 1, number 978-605-7736-51-2, May.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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