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Early Warning Signs of the Economic Crisis in Greece: A Warning for Other Countries and Regions

Author

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  • Ron W. NIELSEN

    (Griffith University,Australia.)

Abstract

Warning signs about the developing economic crisis in Greece were present in the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and in the growth of the GDP well before the economic collapse. The growth ratewas strongly unstable. On average, in less than 50 years, it decreased 10-folds but after reaching a low minimum it quickly increased 6-folds only to crash before completing the full cycle. The decreasing growthrate was leading to an asymptotic maximumof the GDP but it was soon replaced by a fast-increasing growth rate propelling the GDP alonga pseudo-hyperbolic trajectory, which if continued would have escaped to infinity in 2017. Such a growth could not have been possibly supported. Under these conditions, the economic collapse in Greece was inevitable.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2015. "Early Warning Signs of the Economic Crisis in Greece: A Warning for Other Countries and Regions," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, EconSciences Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 460-466, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cvv:journ1:v:2:y:2015:i:4:p:460-466
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    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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