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Estimating Price Variability in Agriculture: Implications for Decision Makers

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  • Ray, Daryll E.
  • Richardson, James W.
  • De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G.
  • Tiller, Kelly H.

Abstract

Using a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 1998–2006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 1986–96 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray, Daryll E. & Richardson, James W. & De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G. & Tiller, Kelly H., 1998. "Estimating Price Variability in Agriculture: Implications for Decision Makers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 21-33, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:30:y:1998:i:01:p:21-33_00
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    1. Jiang, Jingze & Marsh, Thomas L. & Tozer, Peter R., 2015. "Policy induced price volatility transmission: Linking the U.S. crude oil, corn and plastics markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 217-227.
    2. Goodwin, Barry K., 2000. "Instability And Risk In U.S. Agriculture," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 18(01), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Rosa, Franco, 2014. "Evaluation of risk in farm planning: a case study," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 173126, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    4. Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Sequential Investment In Site-Specific Crop Management Under Output Price Uncertainty: Implications For Nitrogen Pollution Control," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21875, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Jindřich Špička, 2009. "The Risk Analysis in the Agricultural Enterprises using Earnings at Risk Method," Ekonomika a Management, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(3).
    6. Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 9-21, December.
    7. Schnepf, Randall D. & Goodwin, Barry K., 1999. "Long-Run Price Risk In U.S. Agricultural Markets," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21687, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. McPhail, Lihong Lu & Babcock, Bruce A., 2008. "Ethanol, Mandates, and Drought: Insights from a Stochastic Equilibrium Model of the U.S. Corn Market," Hebrew University of Jerusalem Archive 6305, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
    9. Franco Rosa & Mario Taverna & Federico Nassivera & Luca Iseppi, 2019. "Farm/crop portfolio simulations under variable risk: a case study from Italy," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Antonios Antypas & Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis, 2011. "Volatility Trends and Optimal Portfolios: the Case of Agricultural Commodities," DEOS Working Papers 1113, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    11. Adams, Gary M. & Young, Linda M., 1998. "Structural Developments In The U.S. Grains Subsector," Proceedings of the 4th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop 1998: Economic Harmonization in the Canadian\U.S.\Mexican Grain-Livestock Subsector; 16768, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    12. Soste, Leon & Wang, Q.J. & Robertson, David & Chaffe, Robert & Handley, Selina & Wei, Yongping, 2015. "Engendering stakeholder ownership in scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 250-263.
    13. Richardson, James W. & Klose, Steven L. & Gray, Allan W., 2000. "An Applied Procedure for Estimating and Simulating Multivariate Empirical (MVE) Probability Distributions In Farm-Level Risk Assessment and Policy Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 299-315, August.
    14. McPhail, Lihong Lu & Babcock, Bruce A., 2008. "Short-Run Price and Welfare Impacts of Federal Ethanol Policies," Hebrew University of Jerusalem Archive 37020, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
    15. He, Lixia & English, Burton C. & De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G. & Hodges, Donald G., 2014. "Woody biomass potential for energy feedstock in United States," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 174-191.

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