IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jagaec/v30y1998i01p21-33_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating Price Variability in Agriculture: Implications for Decision Makers

Author

Listed:
  • Ray, Daryll E.
  • Richardson, James W.
  • De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G.
  • Tiller, Kelly H.

Abstract

Using a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 1998–2006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 1986–96 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray, Daryll E. & Richardson, James W. & De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G. & Tiller, Kelly H., 1998. "Estimating Price Variability in Agriculture: Implications for Decision Makers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 21-33, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:30:y:1998:i:01:p:21-33_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1074070800008014/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. English, Burton C. & Smith, Elwin G. & Atwood, Jay D. & Johnson, Stanley R. & Oamek, George E., 1993. "The CARD LP Model: A Documentation Summary," Staff General Research Papers Archive 890, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Taylor, C. Robert & Reichelderfer, Katherine H. & Johnson, Stanley R., 1993. "Agricultural Sector Models for the United States: Descriptions and Selected Policy Applications," Staff General Research Papers Archive 564, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Jingze & Marsh, Thomas L. & Tozer, Peter R., 2015. "Policy induced price volatility transmission: Linking the U.S. crude oil, corn and plastics markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 217-227.
    2. Goodwin, Barry K., 2000. "Instability And Risk In U.S. Agriculture," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Rosa, Franco, 2014. "Evaluation of risk in farm planning: a case study," 2014 Third Congress, June 25-27, 2014, Alghero, Italy 173126, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    4. Isik, Murat & Khanna, Madhu & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Sequential Investment In Site-Specific Crop Management Under Output Price Uncertainty: Implications For Nitrogen Pollution Control," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21875, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Jindřich Špička, 2009. "The Risk Analysis in the Agricultural Enterprises using Earnings at Risk Method," Ekonomika a Management, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(3).
    6. Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 9-21, December.
    7. Schnepf, Randall D. & Goodwin, Barry K., 1999. "Long-Run Price Risk In U.S. Agricultural Markets," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21687, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Richardson, James W. & Klose, Steven L. & Gray, Allan W., 2000. "An Applied Procedure For Estimating And Simulating Multivariate Empirical (Mve) Probability Distributions In Farm-Level Risk Assessment And Policy Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-17, August.
    9. Lihong Lu McPhail & Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Ethanol, Mandates, and Drought: Insights from a Stochastic Equilibrium Model of the U.S. Corn Market," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp464, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    10. Franco Rosa & Mario Taverna & Federico Nassivera & Luca Iseppi, 2019. "Farm/crop portfolio simulations under variable risk: a case study from Italy," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Antonios Antypas & Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis, 2011. "Volatility Trends and Optimal Portfolios: the Case of Agricultural Commodities," DEOS Working Papers 1113, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    12. Adams, Gary M. & Young, Linda M., 1998. "Structural Developments In The U.S. Grains Subsector," Proceedings of the 4th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop 1998: Economic Harmonization in the Canadian\U.S.\Mexican Grain-Livestock Subsector; 16768, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    13. Soste, Leon & Wang, Q.J. & Robertson, David & Chaffe, Robert & Handley, Selina & Wei, Yongping, 2015. "Engendering stakeholder ownership in scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 250-263.
    14. Lihong Lu McPhail & Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Short-Run Price and Welfare Impacts of Federal Ethanol Policies," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp468, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    15. He, Lixia & English, Burton C. & De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G. & Hodges, Donald G., 2014. "Woody biomass potential for energy feedstock in United States," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 174-191.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pustovit, Nataliya & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2003. "Impact Of Agricultural Protection In Oecd-Countries On South African Agriculture," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25828, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Soregaroli, Claudio & Sckokai, Paolo, 2011. "Modelling Agricultural Commodity Markets under Imperfect Competition," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 116012, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Taylor, C. Robert & Smith, H. Arlen, 1999. "Aggregate Economic Evaluation of the Elimination of Organophosphate and Carbamate Pesticides," Research Reports 257899, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
    4. Mitchell, Paul D., 2011. "Estimating Soil Erosion and Fuel Use Changes and Their Monetary Values with AGSIM: A Case Study for Triazine Herbicides," Staff Paper Series 563, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    5. Anania, Giovanni, 2001. "Modeling Agricultural Trade Liberalization. A Review," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20758, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Conforti, Piero, 2001. "The Common Agricultural Policy In Main Partial Equilibrium Models," Working Papers 14806, National Institute of Agricultural Economics, Italy - INEA, Osservatorio Sulle Politiche Agricole dell'UE.
    7. C. Taylor, 2001. "Indirect Damages from Price Fixing: The Alabama Lysine Case," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 18(1), pages 33-43, February.
    8. Soregaroli, Claudio & Sckokai, Paolo & Moro, Daniele, 2011. "Agricultural policy modelling under imperfect competition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 195-212, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:30:y:1998:i:01:p:21-33_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/aae .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.