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Integración entre mercados de petróleo de diferente calidad con base en las correlaciones condicionales dinámicas

Author

Listed:
  • Raúl de Jesús-Gutiérrez

Abstract

Este artículo prueba el grado de integración de México en los mercados internacionales del petróleo a través de la evolución de las correlaciones dinámicas en periodos estables, de crisis e inestables. Las estimaciones del modelo GARCH-CCD muestran que las correlaciones son positivas y cambian con el tiempo en respuesta al origen de choques en los precios del petróleo para los periodos de relativa calma, crisis y turbulencia financiera. Asimismo, los resultados del estadístico-t y valor-p bootstrap confirman que las correlaciones son significativamente diferentes en periodos de estabilidad e inestabilidad con respecto a las correlaciones del periodo de crisis, lo que favorece la hipótesis de regionalización entre los mercados de petróleo. Los hallazgos tienen importantes implicaciones económicas y financieras para el gobierno y los consumidores.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl de Jesús-Gutiérrez, 2019. "Integración entre mercados de petróleo de diferente calidad con base en las correlaciones condicionales dinámicas," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 11(2), pages 353-374.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:018462
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    File URL: https://revfinypolecon.ucatolica.edu.co/article/view/2574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know about the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Representation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, June.
    5. Jan Bentzen, 2007. "Does OPEC influence crude oil prices? Testing for co-movements and causality between regional crude oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1375-1385.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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