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Una evaluación de la estrategia de inflación objetivo en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Germán Oswaldo Pardo Pardo
  • Pedro Hugo Clavijo Cortés

Abstract

Este artículo busca determinar si la estrategia de inflación objetivo modificó la estructura económica de Colombia, al provocar un cambio estructural. Para ello, se empleó un modelo de vectores autorregresivos y posteriormente dos pruebas de cambio estructural: la prueba de Chow y la prueba de máxima verosimilitud. Se estimó un modelo VAR de cuatro variables que tienen una periodicidad mensual y cubren el periodo 1995M04 hasta 2015M05. Los resultados de la regresión permiten concluir que la adopción de la estrategia de inflación objetivo sí representó un cambio estructural para la economía colombiana y ayudó a mantener baja y estable la inflación.

Suggested Citation

  • Germán Oswaldo Pardo Pardo & Pedro Hugo Clavijo Cortés, 2017. "Una evaluación de la estrategia de inflación objetivo en Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 10(1), pages 189-210, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:016395
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    2. Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November.
    3. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
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    5. Allsop, Christopher & Vines, David, 2000. "The Assessment: Macroeconomic Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 1-32, Winter.
    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflación objetivo; política económica; cambio estructural; modelos VAR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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