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Los “spillovers” del COVID-19 sobre el empleo y el ingreso en Perú

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Tello-Pacheco

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

En este trabajo se estiman los efectos spillovers (de derrame) del COVID-19 sobre empleo (total, formal e informal) e ingresos reales de un grupo de provincias del Perú denominadas “tratadas o de tratamiento”, en el período del virus 2020-II-2021-IV. Estos spillovers se asocian al comportamiento de las personas que incumplieron el confinamiento, se aglomeraron en espacios relativamente pequeños, no usaron medidas de protección contra el COVID-19. Las mediciones de estos efectos se apoyan en Cao y Dowd (2019) y en la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares del INEI-ENAHO (2022) del período 2011.I-2021-IV, que es la base de datos principal del estudio. Dos resultados principales del estudio son, por un lado, que el COVID-19 y las políticas de confinamiento y transferencias a pobres y empresas contribuyeron en promedio en más del 50 % del decrecimiento del empleo total, el formal y el ingreso real (de la población económicamente activa ocupada provincial), y al incremento de la informalidad para el grupo de provincias tratadas. Por otro lado, los efectos spillovers atenuaron los efectos negativos de la disminución del empleo formal y del ingreso real de dichas provincias.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Tello-Pacheco, 2023. "Los “spillovers” del COVID-19 sobre el empleo y el ingreso en Perú," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 42(75), pages 161-195.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000152:020299
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jianfei Cao & Connor Dowd, 2019. "Estimation and Inference for Synthetic Control Methods with Spillover Effects," Papers 1902.07343, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    2. Roberta Di Stefano & Giovanni Mellace, 2020. "The inclusive synthetic control method," Working Papers 21/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
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    4. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto, 2021. "Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1197-1221, November.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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