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Das Defizit in der US-Leistungsbilanz

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  • Hans Seidel

Abstract

Die Leistungsbilanz der USA weist seit Anfang der 1990er Jahre eine ständig größer werdende Lücke auf. 2005 betrug das Defizit bereits 6,3% des BIP. Seine Finanzierung wurde bisher dadurch erleichtert, dass der Dollar Reservewährung ist und die Finanzmärkte zunehmend international verflochten wurden. Defizite dieser Größenordnung lassen sich auf die Dauer nicht aufrechterhalten. Offen ist jedoch, wie rasch das Defizit abgebaut werden muss und welche Konsequenzen sich daraus ergeben. Einige innovative formale Modelle sprechen eher für eine "weiche Landung". Danach hielte sich das Ausmaß der letztlich erforderlichen Abwertung des Dollar in den in der Vergangenheit beobachteten Grenzen und kann über einen längeren Zeitraum verteilt werden. Je größer die Auslandsverschuldung der USA wird, desto größer wird jedoch das Risiko einer weltweiten Finanzkrise. Die Risken eines "crash" könnten durch ein koordiniertes Vorgehen der Wirtschaftspolitik der großen Wirtschaftsblöcke reduziert werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Seidel, 2006. "Das Defizit in der US-Leistungsbilanz," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 32(3), pages 369-386.
    • Handle: RePEc:clr:wugarc:y:2006v:32i:3p:369
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giavazzi, Francesco & Blanchard, Olivier & Sá, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. C. Fred Bergsten & John Williamson (ed.), 2004. "Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number sr17, October.
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