IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v67y2014i10p03-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deflation in Südeuropa: Fluch oder Segen? Wie sollte die EZB reagieren?

Author

Listed:
  • Alfons J. Weichenrieder
  • Adalbert Winkler
  • Anja Rossen
  • Olaf Schlotmann

Abstract

Seit mehr als einem Jahr ist der Preisanstieg im Euroraum im Trend rückläufig. Angesichts der geringen Inflationsrate wird über ein mögliches Abrutschen in eine Deflation diskutiert. Wie groß ist diese Gefahr und wie sollte die EZB reagieren? Das wahrscheinlichere Szenario der nächsten Monate besteht nach Ansicht von Alfons J. Weichenrieder, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt, eher in einer sogenannten »Lowflation« – zu wenig Inflation – statt einer Deflation. Doch auch schon die Lowflation berge Probleme. Der starke strukturelle Anpassungsbedarf in den meisten Euroländern könnte nur von einer höheren Inflationsrate profitieren. In der Vergangenheit seien die Inflationsunterschiede zu gering gewesen, um die Unterschiede in der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit auszugleichen. Adalbert Winkler, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, sieht in den Inflationsdifferentiale des Euroraums ein Anpassungsinstrument. Die Deflation in Südeuropa sei nur dann »ein Fluch«, wenn der Euroraum entweder nicht jenes Maß an Integration aufweise, das für einen erfolgreichen Anpassungsprozess erforderlich sei, oder die Deflation in Südeuropa nicht von einem entsprechenden Inflationsanstieg in Kerneuropa begleitet werde. Anja Rossen, Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut, hält die Deflationssorge für unbegründet. Zwar seien die Inflationsraten zurzeit im Euroraum gering, aber eine sich weiter erholende europäische Konjunktur spreche eher für mittelfristig zunehmende Inflationsraten. Sollte es dennoch zu einer Deflation kommen, so habe die EZB eine Reihe von Instrumenten, um diese zu bekämpfen. Nach Meinung von Olaf Schlotmann, Brunswick European Law School/Ostfalia, können selbst fallende Erzeugerpreise in Südeuropa das dort so dringend benötigte Wirtschaftswachstum auch mittelfristig nicht beschleunigen. Vielmehr werden die aktuell sehr niedrigen Inflationsraten die Tragfähigkeit der (Staats-)Schulden in Südeuropa weiter aushöhlen.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfons J. Weichenrieder & Adalbert Winkler & Anja Rossen & Olaf Schlotmann, 2014. "Deflation in Südeuropa: Fluch oder Segen? Wie sollte die EZB reagieren?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(10), pages 03-15, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:10:p:03-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2014_10_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, 2014. "What Should Surplus Germany Do?," Policy Briefs PB14-14, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2013. "The Most Dangerous Idea in Federal Reserve History: Monetary Policy Doesn't Matter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 55-60, May.
    3. Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "What Have we Learnt about Monetary Integration since the Maastricht Treaty?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 711-730, November.
    4. Adalbert Winkler, 2013. "Geldpolitik aus Sicht der Bundesbank: auf dem Weg zu einem neuen Paradigma?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(12), pages 818-823, December.
    5. Charles W. Calomiris, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry, 1986. "The bank of France and the sterilization of gold, 1926-1932," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-84, January.
    7. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Cross of Euros," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 167-192, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Aikman & Oliver Bush & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report," NBER Working Papers 22380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Muhammad RASHID, 2018. "Successes and Drawbacks of the Federal Reserve and the Impact on Financial Markets," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 56-59.
    3. Benmelech, Efraim & Frydman, Carola & Papanikolaou, Dimitris, 2019. "Financial frictions and employment during the Great Depression," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 541-563.
    4. Winkler, Adalbert, 2013. "Der lender of last resort vor Gericht," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 206, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    5. Mervyn Allister King, 1993. "Debt Deflation: Theory and Evidence," FMG Discussion Papers dp175, Financial Markets Group.
    6. Charles B. Blankart, 2013. "Oil and Vinegar: A Positive Fiscal Theory of the Euro Crisis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 497-528, November.
    7. Davison, Lee K. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2014. "Local banking panics of the 1920s: Identification and determinants," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 164-177.
    8. Erik Jones, 2010. "The Economic Mythology of European Integration," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 89-109, January.
    9. Fratianni, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2017. "The tale of two great crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 5-31.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
    11. Charles W. Calomiris & Stephen H. Haber, 2014. "Interest Groups and the Glass-Steagall Act," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(04), pages 14-18, January.
    12. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José-Luis Peydró & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2018. "From finance to fascism," Economics Working Papers 1651, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2020.
    13. Erik Jones, 2009. "Output Legitimacy and the Global Financial Crisis: Perceptions Matter," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1085-1105, November.
    14. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "How the euro-area sovereign-debt crisis led to a collapse in bank equity prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-275.
    15. Sławomir Bukowski, 2011. "Economic and Monetary Union – Current Fiscal Disturbances and the Future," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 274-287, August.
    16. Hirohiko Okumura, 2003. "Economic Crisis and Economic Policies in Japan since the 1990s," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(4), pages 3-11, October.
    17. Klodiana Istrefi, 2019. "In Fed Watchers’ Eyes: Hawks, Doves and Monetary Policy," Working papers 725, Banque de France.
    18. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    19. Bruce Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "New and Old Keynesians," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 23-44, Winter.
    20. König, Jörg & Ohr, Renate, 2012. "Messung ökonomischer Integration in der Europäischen Union: Entwicklung eines EU-Integrationsindexes," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 135, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation; Zentralbank; Südeuropa; Eurozone;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:10:p:03-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.