IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v67y2014i10p03-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deflation in Südeuropa: Fluch oder Segen? Wie sollte die EZB reagieren?

Author

Listed:
  • Alfons J. Weichenrieder
  • Adalbert Winkler
  • Anja Rossen
  • Olaf Schlotmann

Abstract

Seit mehr als einem Jahr ist der Preisanstieg im Euroraum im Trend rückläufig. Angesichts der geringen Inflationsrate wird über ein mögliches Abrutschen in eine Deflation diskutiert. Wie groß ist diese Gefahr und wie sollte die EZB reagieren? Das wahrscheinlichere Szenario der nächsten Monate besteht nach Ansicht von Alfons J. Weichenrieder, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt, eher in einer sogenannten »Lowflation« – zu wenig Inflation – statt einer Deflation. Doch auch schon die Lowflation berge Probleme. Der starke strukturelle Anpassungsbedarf in den meisten Euroländern könnte nur von einer höheren Inflationsrate profitieren. In der Vergangenheit seien die Inflationsunterschiede zu gering gewesen, um die Unterschiede in der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit auszugleichen. Adalbert Winkler, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, sieht in den Inflationsdifferentiale des Euroraums ein Anpassungsinstrument. Die Deflation in Südeuropa sei nur dann »ein Fluch«, wenn der Euroraum entweder nicht jenes Maß an Integration aufweise, das für einen erfolgreichen Anpassungsprozess erforderlich sei, oder die Deflation in Südeuropa nicht von einem entsprechenden Inflationsanstieg in Kerneuropa begleitet werde. Anja Rossen, Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut, hält die Deflationssorge für unbegründet. Zwar seien die Inflationsraten zurzeit im Euroraum gering, aber eine sich weiter erholende europäische Konjunktur spreche eher für mittelfristig zunehmende Inflationsraten. Sollte es dennoch zu einer Deflation kommen, so habe die EZB eine Reihe von Instrumenten, um diese zu bekämpfen. Nach Meinung von Olaf Schlotmann, Brunswick European Law School/Ostfalia, können selbst fallende Erzeugerpreise in Südeuropa das dort so dringend benötigte Wirtschaftswachstum auch mittelfristig nicht beschleunigen. Vielmehr werden die aktuell sehr niedrigen Inflationsraten die Tragfähigkeit der (Staats-)Schulden in Südeuropa weiter aushöhlen.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfons J. Weichenrieder & Adalbert Winkler & Anja Rossen & Olaf Schlotmann, 2014. "Deflation in Südeuropa: Fluch oder Segen? Wie sollte die EZB reagieren?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(10), pages 03-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:10:p:03-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2014_10_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, 2014. "What Should Surplus Germany Do?," Policy Briefs PB14-14, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "What Have We Learnt about Monetary Integration since the Maastricht Treaty?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 11, pages 273-296, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2013. "The Most Dangerous Idea in Federal Reserve History: Monetary Policy Doesn't Matter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 55-60, May.
    4. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:44:y:2006:i::p:711-730 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Claudia Goldin & Eugene N. White, 1998. "The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord98-1.
    6. Adalbert Winkler, 2013. "Geldpolitik aus Sicht der Bundesbank: auf dem Weg zu einem neuen Paradigma?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(12), pages 818-823, December.
    7. J. Bradford DeLong, 1998. "Fiscal Policy in the Shadow of the Great Depression," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Charles W. Calomiris, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry, 1986. "The bank of France and the sterilization of gold, 1926-1932," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-84, January.
    10. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Cross of Euros," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 167-192, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Winkler, Adalbert, 2013. "Der lender of last resort vor Gericht," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 206, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    2. Nicholas Crafts & Peter Fearon, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 285-317, Autumn.
    3. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
    4. Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
    5. Nathan Perry & Matías Vernengo, 2014. "What ended the Great Depression? Re-evaluating the role of fiscal policy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(2), pages 349-367.
    6. Klug, Adam & Landon-Lane, John S. & White, Eugene N., 2005. "How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-55, January.
    7. Bhajan S. Grewal, 2000. "Australian Loan Council: Arrangements and Experience with Bailouts," Research Department Publications 3098, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Libich, Jan, 2006. "Central Bank Independence, Accountability and Transparency: Complements or Strategic Substitutes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Kupiec, Paul H. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2013. "Bank failures and the cost of systemic risk: Evidence from 1900 to 1930," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 285-307.
    11. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Do bank failures still matter in affecting regional economic activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Molinder, Jakob & Karlsson, Tobias & Enflo, Kerstin, 2022. "Social democracy and the decline of strikes," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Chiaki Moriguchi, 2005. "Did American Welfare Capitalists Breach Their Implicit Contracts during the Great Depression? Preliminary Findings from Company-Level Data," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 59(1), pages 51-81, October.
    14. Calomiris, Charles W. & Mason, Joseph R. & Wheelock, David C., 2011. "Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the Recession of 1937-1938? A Microeconomic Approach," Working Papers 11-03, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    15. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities 1998–2013," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    16. Charles B. Blankart & Sven Bretschneider, 2012. "Nutzen und Kosten eines Austritts Griechenlands aus dem Euro," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(09), pages 12-16, May.
    17. Crescioli, Tommaso & Martelli, Angelo, 2022. "Beyond the Great Reversal: Superstars, Unions, and the Euro," Single Market Economics Papers WP2022/8, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    18. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Globalization Cycles," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, March.
    19. Goodman, Joshua Samuel & Goodman, Lucas & Goodman, Sarena & Goodman, Allen C., 2014. "A Few Goodmen: Surname-Sharing Co-Authors in Economics," Scholarly Articles 22805379, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    20. Aikman, David & Bush, Oliver & Davis, Alan, 2016. "Monetary versus macroprudential policies causal impacts of interest rates and credit controls in the era of the UK Radcliffe Report," Bank of England working papers 610, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation; Zentralbank; Südeuropa; Eurozone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:10:p:03-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.