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Gemeinschaftsdiagnose im Herbst 2016: Deutsche Wirtschaft gut ausgelastet – Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten

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  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich in einem moderaten Aufschwung. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt dürfte in diesem Jahr um 1,9 % und im kommenden Jahr um 1,4 % zulegen. Im Jahr 2018 dürfte die Expansionsrate bei 1,6 % liegen. Die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kapazitäten sind damit im Prognosezeitraum etwas stärker ausgelastet als im langjährigen Mittel. Dennoch sind es derzeit weniger die Unternehmensinvestitionen, die den Aufschwung tragen: Von der Weltkonjunktur gehen nur geringe stimulierende Effekte aus, sodass die Exporte nur moderat steigen. Zudem dürften sich in den außerordentlich niedrigen Kapitalmarktzinsen nicht nur die derzeitige Geldpolitik, sondern auch niedrige Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln. All dies hemmt die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen. So ist es weiterhin in erster Linie der Konsum, der den Aufschwung trägt. Der private Verbrauch profitiert dabei insbesondere vom anhaltenden Beschäftigungsaufbau, beim öffentlichen Konsum machen sich weiterhin die hohen Aufwendungen zur Unterbringung und Integration von Flüchtlingen bemerkbar. Der Wohnungsbau wird durch die niedrigen Zinsen angeregt.

Suggested Citation

  • Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2016. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose im Herbst 2016: Deutsche Wirtschaft gut ausgelastet – Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(06), pages 26-29, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:23:y:2016:i:06:p:26-29
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    Cited by:

    1. Drygalla, Andrej & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel, 2017. "Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Szenarien für die Jahre 2016 bis 2021," IWH Online 3/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Björn Kauder & Luisa Lorenz & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Luisa Dörr, 2017. "Tax Increases Via the Back Door – Fiscal Revenue Impact of Bracket Creep," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 51-58, January.
    3. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Björn Kauder & Luisa Lorenz & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Luisa Dörr, 2017. "How Bracket Creep Creates Hidden Tax Increases: Evidence from Germany," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 34-39, December.
    4. Marcell Göttert, 2017. "Steuermehreinnahmen und Steuerquote wachsen weiter – Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom Mai 2017," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(11), pages 55-58, June.
    5. Arno Städtler, 2016. "Leasing Shows Stronger Growth than Fixed Asset Investment – Dynamic Expected to Weaken in 2017," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(23), pages 52-63, December.
    6. Gebhardt, Heinz, 2016. "Haushaltskonsolidierung in den meisten Bundesländern weit vorangeschritten," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 67(4), pages 33-48.
    7. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2018. "Trotz voller Kassen: Nicht jedes Wahlversprechen im nächsten Koalitionsvertrag umsetzen!," Kiel Policy Brief 112, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Marcell Göttert, 2016. "Forecasts of Additional Tax Revenues Fall as of 2018 Despite Revisions – The Results of the Tax Revenue Estimates of November 2016," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(23), pages 70-73, December.
    9. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Fabian Häring & Björn Kauder & Luisa Lorenz & Martin Mosler & Luisa Dörr, 2017. "Eliminating the Middle-class Bulge – Income Tax Reform Options and their Fiscal Costs," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(09), pages 31-38, May.
    10. Sabine Rumscheidt, 2016. "Online-Handel – Chance für den stationären Einzelhandel?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 51-56, November.
    11. FlorianDorn & ClemensFuest & BjörnKauder & LuisaLorenz & MartinMosler & NiklasPotrafke & LuisaDörr, 2018. "How Bracket Creep Creates Hidden Tax Increases: Evidence from Germany," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 34-39, January.
    12. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Björn Kauder & Luisa Lorenz & Martin Mosler & Potrafke. Niklas & Luisa Dörr, 2017. "Bracket Creep – Distribution Effects of a Rolling Income Tax Rate," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(03), pages 28-39, February.
    13. Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif, 2016. "A Flash Estimate of Private Consumption in Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(21), pages 36-41, November.
    14. repec:ces:ifodic:v:15:y:2018:i:4:p:50000000000859 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Florian Dorn & Clemens Fuest & Björn Kauder & Luisa Lorenz & Martin Mosler & Luisa Dörr, 2017. "The removal of the middle class bulge - models and costs," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77, October.
    16. Clemens Fuest & Björn Kauder & Luisa Lorenz & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Florian Dorn, 2016. "Hidden tax increases - the extra tax burden of the bracket creep and the expected impact of income tax rates "on wheels" on tax reliefs," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 76, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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