IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/brf/journl/v8y2010i4p469-504.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Short Market Neutral and Index Tracking Strategies Based on Cointegrated Portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • João Frois Caldeira

    (Banco Cooperativo Sicredi S.A.)

  • Marcelo Savino Portugal

    (UFRGS)

Abstract

The traditional models to optimize portfolios based on mean-variance analysis aim to determine the portfolio weights that minimize the variance for a certain return level. The covariance matrices used to optimize are difficult to estimate and ad hoc methods often need to be applied to limit or smooth the mean-variance efficient allocations recommended by the model. Although the method is efficient, the tracking error isn’t certainly stationary, so the portfolio can get distant from the benchmark, requiring frequent re-balancements. This work uses cointegration methodology to devise two quantitative strategies: index tracking and long-short market neutral. We aim to design optimal portfolios acquiring the asset prices’ co-movements. The results show that the devise of index tracking portfolios using cointegration generates goods results, replicating the benchmark’s return and volatility. The long-short strategy generated stable returns under several market circumstances, presenting low volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • João Frois Caldeira & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2010. "Long-Short Market Neutral and Index Tracking Strategies Based on Cointegrated Portfolios," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 469-504.
  • Handle: RePEc:brf:journl:v:8:y:2010:i:4:p:469-504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/rbfin/article/download/1534/2133
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/rbfin/article/view/1534
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2002. "On Mean Reversion in Real Interest Rates: An Application of Threshold Cointegtation," Economics Series 109, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. George H. K. Wang & Jot Yau, 1994. "A time series approach to testing for market linkage: Unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 457-474, June.
    4. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    5. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
    6. Christian L Dunis & Richard Ho, 2005. "Cointegration portfolios of European equities for index tracking and market neutral strategies," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 33-52, June.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1985. "Capital Asset Pricing Compatible with Observed Market Value Weights," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 85-103, March.
    9. Lucas, André, 1997. "Strategic and tactical asset allocation and the effect of long-run equilibrium relations," Serie Research Memoranda 0042, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    11. Choi, In, 1992. "Durbin-Hausman Tests for a Unit Root," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 289-304, August.
    12. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    13. Ram Bhar, 1994. "Yield Curve as a Cointegrated System: Evidence from Australian Treasury Securities," Working Paper Series 35, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    15. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pourazarm, Elham & Cooray, Arusha, 2013. "Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 546-558.
    2. Carol Alexander & Michael Barrow, 1994. "Seasonality and Cointegration of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(10), pages 1667-1689, December.
    3. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    4. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Song, Chi-Young, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account Balance in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 143-184, June.
    6. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    7. Elżbieta Szaruga & Elżbieta Załoga, 2022. "Environmental Management from the Point of View of the Energy Intensity of Road Freight Transport and Shocks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-22, November.
    8. Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1997. "STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy," Working Papers 1997-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April.
    10. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    11. Vidal Alejandro, Pavel & Fundora Fernández, Annia, 2008. "Trade-growth relationship in Cuba: estimation using the Kalman filter," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    12. Norman J. Morin, 2006. "Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1992_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kawai, Masahiro & Ohara, Hidetaka, 1997. "Nonstationarity of Real Exchange Rates in the G7 Countries: Are They Cointegrated with Real Variables?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 523-547, December.
    15. Defne Mutluer & Yasemin Barlas, 2002. "Modeling the Turkish Broad Money Demand," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(2), pages 55-75.
    16. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    17. Bierens, H.J., 1995. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Other publications TiSEM aa45c4fa-ef46-43a6-b14e-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Wai-Chung Lo & Hung-Gay Fung & Morse, Joel N., 1995. "A note on Euroyen and domestic yen interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1309-1321, October.
    19. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    20. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2013. "Inflationary expectations and monetary policy: evidence from Bangladesh," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1155-1169, June.
    21. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Index Tracking; Long-Short; Market Neutral Strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:brf:journl:v:8:y:2010:i:4:p:469-504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marcio Laurini (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.