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Explaining Middle Eastern Political Authoritarianism II: Liberalizing Transitions

Author

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  • Noland Marcus

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Long-lived undemocratic political regimes are ubiquitous in the Arab world. The likelihood of a transition declines as a country liberalizes and approaches the democratic asymptote. Worldwide democracy waves are positively associated with the likelihood of transition. Adherence to Islam among the population is uncorrelated with the likelihood of a liberalizing episode, but the Arab population share is negatively correlated with the likelihood of a liberalizing transition. For the Arab countries of the Middle East, the odds on liberalizing transitions occurring are low but rising, and alternative interpretations of the Arab population share variable are important in this regard.

Suggested Citation

  • Noland Marcus, 2008. "Explaining Middle Eastern Political Authoritarianism II: Liberalizing Transitions," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 31-40, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:4:y:2008:i:1:n:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Noland Marcus, 2008. "Explaining Middle Eastern Political Authoritarianism I: The Level of Democracy," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, January.
    2. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-187, June.
    3. Badawi, Ibrahim El & Makdisi, Samir, 2007. "Explaining the democracy deficit in the Arab world," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 813-831, February.
    4. Noland, Marcus, 2005. "Religion and economic performance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1215-1232, August.
    5. repec:cup:apsrev:v:89:y:1995:i:04:p:882-897_09 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    2. Murshed Syed Mansoob, 2008. "Development despite Modest Growth in the Middle East," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-31, September.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

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