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Goal and Strategies of an Insurgent Group: Violent and Non-violent Actions

Author

Listed:
  • Zambrano Andrés

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia)

  • Zuleta Hernando

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia)

Abstract

We model the strategy of an insurgent group that follows a pattern of prolonged popular war but negotiates with the government. The main results of the model are the following: (i) If the marginal probability of signing a peace treaty is significantly low when the guerrilla invests little on non-violent strategies, then they will continue to fight and allocate all its resources on military power. (ii) Ceteris paribus, the future stock of military power of a guerrilla is increasing in their current military power and its budget. (iii) The greater the government’s military power, the lower the share of resources guerrillas allocate to violent strategies. We also provide two examples of negotiation processes between the Colombian government and FARC, and relate it to our theoretical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Zambrano Andrés & Zuleta Hernando, 2017. "Goal and Strategies of an Insurgent Group: Violent and Non-violent Actions," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-7, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:23:y:2017:i:2:p:7:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2016-0039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sigifredo Laengle & Gino Loyola & David Tobón-Orozco, 2020. "Bargaining under polarization: The case of the Colombian armed conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(4), pages 551-563, July.
    2. Morales, Juan S., 2021. "Legislating during war: Conflict and politics in Colombia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic conflict; negotiation strategies; guerrilla; utility functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N46 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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