IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v9y2013i2p165-177n1.html

Around the goal: examining the effect of the first goal on the second goal in soccer using survival analysis methods

Author

Listed:
  • Nevo Daniel

    (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem – Statistics, Jerusalem, Israel)

  • Ritov Ya’acov

    (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem – Statistics, Jerusalem, Israel)

Abstract

In this paper we apply survival techniques to soccer data, treating a goal scoring as the event of interest. It specifically concerns the relationship between the time of the first goal in the game and the time of the second goal. In order to do so, the relevant survival analysis concepts are readjusted to fit the problem and a Cox model is developed for the hazard function. Time dependent covariates and a frailty term are also considered. We also use a reliable propensity score to summarize the pre-game covariates. The conclusions derived from the results are that a first goal occurrence could either expedite or impede the next goal scoring, depending on the time it was scored. Moreover, once a goal is scored, another goal scoring becomes more and more likely as the game progresses. Furthermore, the first goal effect is the same whether the goal was scored or conceded.

Suggested Citation

  • Nevo Daniel & Ritov Ya’acov, 2013. "Around the goal: examining the effect of the first goal on the second goal in soccer using survival analysis methods," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 165-177, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:9:y:2013:i:2:p:165-177:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2012-0004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2012-0004
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jqas-2012-0004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fiona Carmichael & Dennis Thomas, 2005. "Home-Field Effect and Team Performance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 6(3), pages 264-281, August.
    2. Jones Marshall B, 2011. "Responses to Scoring or Conceding the First Goal in the NHL," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gomez, Miguel-Angel & Reus, Marc & Parmar, Nimai & Travassos, Bruno, 2020. "Exploring elite soccer teams’ performances during different match-status periods of close matches’ comebacks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yiwen Xu & Ying Wang & Yang Yang, 2024. "The Impact of Air Pollution on Game Outcome," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 557-582, June.
    2. Jorge Tovar & AndrÔøΩs Clavijo & JuliÔøΩn CÔøΩrdenas, 2017. "A strategy to predict association football players‚Äô passing skills," Documentos CEDE 15821, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Benjamin Leard & Joanne M. Doyle, 2011. "The Effect of Home Advantage, Momentum, and Fighting on Winning in the National Hockey League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(5), pages 538-560, October.
    4. Delbianco Fernando & Fioravanti Federico & Tohmé Fernando, 2023. "Home advantage and crowd attendance: evidence from rugby during the Covid 19 pandemic," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 15-26, March.
    5. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2007. "The Twelfth Man? Refereeing Bias in English and German Soccer," Working Papers 0707, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    6. Karol Kempa & Hannes Rusch, 2019. "Dissent, sabotage, and leader behaviour in contests: Evidence from European football," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 500-514, July.
    7. Seckin, Aylin & Pollard, Richard, 2007. "Home advantage in Turkish professional soccer," MPRA Paper 14323, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    8. Arne Feddersen & Brad Humphreys & Brian Soebbing, 2012. "Cost Incentives in European Football," Working Papers 2012-13, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    9. Rose, Mei & Rose, Gregory M. & Merchant, Altaf & Orth, Ulrich R., 2021. "Sports teams heritage: Measurement and application in sponsorship," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 759-769.
    10. Smith Erin E & Groetzinger Jon D., 2010. "Do Fans Matter? The Effect of Attendance on the Outcomes of Major League Baseball Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24, January.
    11. Peter-J. Jost, 2021. "Competitive Balance and the Away Goals Rule During Extra Time," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(7), pages 823-863, October.
    12. Jorge Tovar, 2014. "Gasping for Air: Soccer players‚Äô performance at high-altitude," Documentos CEDE 11949, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    13. Assanskiy, Artur & Shaposhnikov, Daniil & Tylkin, Igor & Vasiliev, Gleb, 2022. "Prove them wrong: Do professional athletes perform better when facing their former clubs?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    14. Ryan Dansby & R Todd Jewell, 2014. "A Violent Response to Changing the Rules of the Game: The Case of “The Split” in Scottish Premier League Soccer," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 473-487, September.
    15. Vincenzo Scoppa, 2008. "Are subjective evaluations biased by social factors or connections? An econometric analysis of soccer referee decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 123-140, August.
    16. Federico Fioravanti & Fernando Delbianco & Fernando Tohmé, 2025. "Visitors Out! The Absence of Away Team Supporters as a Source of Home Advantage in Football," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 106(4), July.
    17. Peter-J. Jost, 2021. "“The ball is round, the game lasts 90 minutes, everything else is pure theoryâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 27-74, January.
    18. Andrew W. Nutting, 2010. "Travel Costs in the NBA Production Function," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(5), pages 533-548, October.
    19. Peter Stüttgen, 2025. "The Impact of Scheduling and Match Congestion on Team Performance in Professional Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 887-912, December.
    20. Tovar Jorge, 2014. "Gasping for air: soccer players’ passing behavior at high-altitude," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 411-420, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:9:y:2013:i:2:p:165-177:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.