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Skill importance in women’s soccer

Author

Listed:
  • Heiner Matthew

    (Statistics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA)

  • Fellingham Gilbert W.

    (Statistics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA)

  • Thomas Camille

    (Physical Education and Human Performance, Southern Utah University, Cedar City, UT, USA)

Abstract

Soccer analytics often follow one of two approaches: 1) regression models on number of shots taken or goals scored to predict match winners, or 2) spatial and/or temporal analysis of plays for evaluation of strategy. We propose a new model to evaluate skill importance in soccer. Play by play data were collected on 22 NCAA Division I Women’s Soccer matches with a new skill notation system. Using a Bayesian approach, we model play sequences as discrete absorbing Markov chains. Using posterior distributions, we estimate the probability of 35 distinct offensive skills leading to a shot during a single possession.

Suggested Citation

  • Heiner Matthew & Fellingham Gilbert W. & Thomas Camille, 2014. "Skill importance in women’s soccer," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 287-302, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:10:y:2014:i:2:p:16:n:16
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0119
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miskin Michelle A & Fellingham Gilbert W & Florence Lindsay W, 2010. "Skill Importance in Women's Volleyball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-14, April.
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    5. Brillinger David R, 2007. "A Potential Function Approach to the Flow of Play in Soccer," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
    7. Martin, Andrew D. & Quinn, Kevin M. & Park, Jong Hee, 2011. "MCMCpack: Markov Chain Monte Carlo in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 42(i09).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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