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Predicting Resource Policy Outcomes via Meta-Regression: Data Space, Model Space, and the Quest for 'Optimal Scope'

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  • Moeltner Klaus

    () (University of Nevada - Reno)

  • Rosenberger Randall S

    () (Oregon State University)

Abstract

Resource-managing agencies are increasingly relying on secondary data to predict economic benefits for planned policy interventions. This `transfer of benefits' is often based on a quantitative synthesis of aggregate results for similar past interventions via Meta-Regression Models. However, this approach is generally plagued by the paucity of available studies and related small sample problems. A broadening of scope of the Meta-Regression Model by adding data from ``related, yet different" contexts or activities may circumvent these issues, but may not necessarily enhance the efficiency of transfer functions if the different contexts do not share policy-relevant parameters. We illustrate how different combinations of contexts can be interpreted as `data spaces' which can then be explored for the most promising transfer function using Bayesian Model Search techniques. Our results indicate that model-averaged benefit predictions for scope-augmented data spaces can be more robust and efficient than those flowing from the baseline context and data.

Suggested Citation

  • Moeltner Klaus & Rosenberger Randall S, 2008. "Predicting Resource Policy Outcomes via Meta-Regression: Data Space, Model Space, and the Quest for 'Optimal Scope'," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:8:y:2008:i:1:n:31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahtiainen, Heini & Vanhatalo, Jarno, 2012. "The value of reducing eutrophication in European marine areas — A Bayesian meta-analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Robert Johnston & Klaus Moeltner, 2014. "Meta-Modeling and Benefit Transfer: The Empirical Relevance of Source-Consistency in Welfare Measures," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(3), pages 337-361, November.
    3. Londoño, Luz M. & Johnston, Robert J., 2012. "Enhancing the reliability of benefit transfer over heterogeneous sites: A meta-analysis of international coral reef values," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 80-89.

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