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La apreciación del tipo de cambio y su efecto en la balanza comercial. Caso boliviano (2006 - 2008)

Author

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  • Boris A. Luna Acevedo

Abstract

La economía boliviana ha experimentado un notable desempeño en las exportaciones tradicionales y no tradicionales a consecuencia del incremento de los precios internacionales y de la demanda externa. En cambio, el Banco Central de Bolivia adopta una política cambiaria de apreciación para cumplir con su objetivo de bolivianización de la economía nacional, lo cual genera una inconsistencia con la competitividad de los productos de exportación. El presente documento analiza, primero la relación entre el tipo de cambio real (TCR) y los fundamentos que determinan su equilibrio de largo plazo, y segundo, se estiman los efectos conjuntos del TCR y la actividad externa en la demanda de las exportaciones tradicionales y no tradicionales para el periodo 2006 a 2008 mediante un modelo de Vector de Corrección del Error (VEC), que muestra los efectos de corto plazo y su velocidad de ajuste hacia su nivel de equilibrio ante shocks transitorios. Los resultados señalan que la competitividad exportadora estaría asociada al ciclo económico de nuestros principales socios comerciales, y a aspectos institucionales, de productividad e innovación, apertura comercial, acceso al uso de tecnología y otros no relacionados al movimiento cambiario pero que posiblemente influyan en el desempeño exportador en el largo plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris A. Luna Acevedo, 2011. "La apreciación del tipo de cambio y su efecto en la balanza comercial. Caso boliviano (2006 - 2008)," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 15(2), pages 45-96, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:15:y:2011:i:2:p:45-96
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez & Luisa Fernanda Silva, 2001. "Exportaciones No Tradicionales En Colombia Y Sus Determinantes," Revista ESPE - ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 19(39), pages 73-114, June.
    2. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    4. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, January.
    5. Bustamante, Rafael & Morales, Fedor, 2009. "Probando la condición de Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva-J: Evidencia empírica para el caso peruano," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, pages 103-126.
    6. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2007. "Econometric Analysis with Vector Autoregressive Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/11, European University Institute.
    7. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2002. "The Real Exchange Rate Always Floats," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 369-381, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tipo de cambio; balanza comercial; series de tiempo;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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